"Home nesting" and online shopping are to keep rising post pandemic, according to new findings in a McKinsey survey based on China, France, Germany, the UK and the U.S..

As the pandemic continues to change both the way we live and our daily habits, many high-earning employees are not expected back in the office full-time for a while. That's ultimately changing our long-term consumer habits, even after things do return to a sense of "normal," according to McKinsey.

The report says the coronavirus pandemic has impacted regions and individuals in vastly different ways, both socially and economically. 

Working from home has meant many people have accumulated more savings rather than spending, as they have effectively been forced to cut back due to lockdowns, travel restrictions and health fears. 

On the other hand, some have lost jobs, leading to greater economic precariousness and less willingness to spend. Businesses closing down and the unemployment that has brought about has led to people prioritizing immediate needs, such as paying bills, rather than spending on luxuries. 

While the report says there will be a "robust recovery" in consumer spending once the COVID-19 pandemic virus is controlled, the way we spend into the future will continue to be dramatically different from the way it was before March 2020.

 

 

All the time spent at home has led to a rise in "home nesting," which is essentially spending on items such as home gyms, gardens and gaming equipment. This is set to continue, the study found.

On the other hand, COVID-19 and the restrictions that came with it naturally brought about a decrease in leisure air travel. The report says that while people are looking forward to traveling and holidays once again, the speed at which this returns depends heavily on vaccine roll-out. 

Online grocery shopping and virtual healthcare appointments are also expected to rise, even as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic begins to wane. Spending on remote education and digital entertainment will dip, and even when our social lives return, dining and education will also have new changes, including digital menus in eating establishments to reduce the virus spreading and greater levels of digital learning integrated into classrooms.

 

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Virtual health care visits, as expected, increased across the board. Online doctors' appointments via video call increased 10-fold in Germany, 25-fold in the U.S. and 50-fold in France during the pandemic, the study reports. 

Whether that continues will also depend to what extent regulators and insurers are prepared to introduce relaxed rules surrounding appointments, the report warns. Doctors also said in the report that investment and demand for "telehealth" services have soared, meaning the infrastructure is being created for the sector to stick post pandemic. 

Online grocery shopping has also doubled in some countries in the past year, rising to around 10 percent in the U.S. and the UK.  

The pandemic has also encouraged people to spend on home entertainment and more than 60 percent of consumers across the five countries said they intended to maintain some of the home entertainment services they had subscribed to during the pandemic. In line with how the pandemic has changed our lifestyles irreversibly and reduced many social aspects of our lives, this implies a longer-term drop in demand for cinemas and theaters.

 

 

Despite more time being spent at home set to continue, more than one in five consumers surveyed in the McKinsey report said that leisure travel was one of the top activities they were looking forward to restarting after the pandemic. However, it is still unknown whether the low-end costs of flights and travel we were accustomed to before in pre-pandemic times are set to return. 

After the pandemic, whenever that may be, the McKinsey report expects business travel to drop by 20 percent. This will increase pressure on airlines which were able to offer leisure seats previously with the profits from business seats. Fewer flights also means more video conferences, not just because of cost but due to a rise in sustainability and climate change being a key factor influencing consumer behavior into the future. 

Around 1.6 billion children had their education disrupted due to the pandemic and online learning provided a solution. Despite this, the McKinsey report found that poor experiences reported by children and teachers and drastic differences in attainment gaps between children from low- and high-income families means it is unlikely the practice will stick. 

That means an effective vaccine roll-out to bring the pandemic to an end could restore consumer demand to pre-pandemic levels, fueled by rising consumer confidence, pent-up demand and accumulated savings. The report mentions China as an example of how bringing the pandemic under control can reintroduce robust consumer spending recovery in nations across the globe.

 

 

Consumption is expected to shift towards older and wealthier groups of people, partially due to an increasing population of over-65s and a slower post-pandemic recovery for low-income groups. The McKinsey survey also emphasizes that post-pandemic recovery and consumer trends depend heavily on health risks receding with vaccinations and governments providing further economic support. 

Post-pandemic spending will also be greatly influenced by two key groups. The first is middle-aged women, who for the past year have balanced work with their caregiving roles and responsibilities. The second is younger, high-income earners, who have accumulated significant savings but may hold back from spending until the outlook is more certain. 

The report says that assuming the pandemic is brought under control, consumer patterns and behavior will be dramatically different between higher- and lower-income households, particularly due to changes in the labor market as a result of digitization and automation.