China's carbon emissions look set to peak this year before falling into a structural decline for the first time from 2024, according to a poll of experts from industry and academia.

The annual report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Helsinki-based think tank, along with the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), says record growth in investment in new low-carbon energy sources means Chinese ambitions to bring its climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions to a peak before 2030 is ahead of schedule.

Chinese emissions have rebounded this year with the country opening up and the government dropping its Covid restrictions in January, and Beijing's solar and wind installation targets for the year were met by September, according to the report, and the market share of electric vehicles is well ahead of the government's 20 percent target for 2025.

Other key findings from the report:

• China has experienced a manufacturing boom, which has offset a contraction in demand for carbon-intensive steel and cement due to the current sluggish real-estate industry.

• Hydro generation is set to rebound from record lows due to the drought of 2022-23.

• Analysis showed China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the whole power generation capacity of the UK.

• China has made some economic progress in recovering from the difficulties of the Covid pandemic, though there is still room for further growth.

• However, the majority of the 89 respondents believe post-pandemic economic conditions were accelerating the energy transition.

• There has been a surge of investment in manufacturing, particularly for low-carbon technologies, including solar, electric vehicles and batteries.

Overall, there appears to be optimism and belief by the experts that despite rising emissions in 2023, the outlook for China's ongoing green revolution is heading in the right direction. 

CREA China analyst Chengcheng Qiu told CGTN Europe: "We invited experts from diverse backgrounds and sectors to take part in a survey to provide their insights on China's progress in the climate transition and prospects of this significant undertaking. Unlike conventional quantitative studies that rely heavily on mathematical modelling or normative analyses, our survey engaged experts who used their extensive professional knowledge and practical experience to address the questions.

"These experts are deeply involved in policy-making, scientific and technological research, and commercial activities, and they play a crucial role in driving climate actions in China. While China's CO2 emissions are still increasing, there are indications that the growth of clean energy and technology could lead to an earlier peak in carbon emissions. The timing and level of this peak will have a significant impact on China's path to carbon neutrality." 

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the CREA and author of the report added: "The rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet, but exceed the average annual increase in China's demand for electricity overall. If this pace is maintained, or accelerated, it would mean that China's electricity generation from fossil fuels would enter a period of structural decline – which would also be a first. Moreover, this structural decline could come about despite the new wave of coal plant permitting and construction in the country."

Myllyvirta believes this rapid growth in green investment may "create tension with traditional interests in the country's coal industry," but will also "boost the economic and political case for China to continue supporting low-carbon growth, both at home and abroad."

Negotations and conversations concerning these ongoing energy transitions will obviously dominate at COP28 in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, with the hope of working towards the delivery on the pillars of the Paris Agreement from eight years ago.

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"Achieving carbon neutrality in a fast-growing economy like China is not an easy task," said Yang Muyi from the ISETS. And while recognizing that China's potential to peak carbon emissions by 2030 should be celebrated, CREA analyst Chengcheng Qiu emphasized the challenges of reducing peaks and attaining long-term carbon neutrality goals "demand recognition," adding that she hoped China continued to promote "green growth."

As the world's leaders prepare for their trip to the United Arab Emirates next week, there is some optimism following the agreement between China and the U.S. to back a new global renewables target and work together on methane and plastic pollution. 

The two superpowers will strive to "triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030" with China saying the agreement would "accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation" in order to secure "meaningful absolute power sector emission reductions" this decade. 

Data for the analysis was compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Energy Administration of China, China Electricity Council and China Customs official data releases, and from WIND Information, an industry data provider.

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