New data from Europe's leading climate monitor suggests 2023 is on its way to being the hottest on record.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, managed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and supported by the European Commission, has published significant temperature anomalies in its monthly climate report for October 2023. 

Utilizing the extensive ERA5 dataset – a collection of billions of measurements obtained from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations across the globe – the report illustrates the unprecedented changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover, and various hydrological variables.

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In October 2023, the global average surface air temperature soared to 15.3 degrees Celsius, making it the warmest October ever recorded. That's 0.85 degrees above the 1991-2020 average for October and surpasses the previous record – set in 2019 – by 0.40 degrees. 

This temperature deviation in October was the second highest across all months in the ERA5 dataset, falling just behind the exceptional warmth witnessed in September 2023.

Comparing the data to the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, October 2023 was a staggering 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer. Notably, the global mean temperature for the first 10 months of 2023 stands as the highest on record, surpassing the previous record-holder of 2016 by 0.1 degrees.

For Europe, October 2023 ranked as the fourth warmest October on record, with temperatures reaching 1.30 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average. Simultaneously, sea surface temperatures over the 60°S-60°N band hit a record high of 20.79 degrees in October, underlining the severity of the temperature anomalies.

'2023 will be the warmest year on record'

Moreover, the report highlighted the development of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific, although these anomalies were lower than those experienced during the notable 1997 and 2015 events.

"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following a string of months where global temperature records were shattered," said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.

"We can assert with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, currently standing at 1.43 degrees Celsius above the pre industrial average," Burgess added.

The report also brought attention to sea ice conditions, noting record low levels in both the Antarctic and Arctic regions, with precipitation anomalies across various continents. October marked the sixth consecutive month that Antarctic sea ice extent remained at record low levels for the time of year, with a monthly value 11 percentage below average.

The report also showed that precipitation was above average across most of Europe in October 2023, with Storm Babet in northern Europe and Storm Aline in Portugal and Spain, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to regions in Europe, North America, Asia, and beyond.

Meanwhile, southern USA and parts of Mexico, as well as regions of central and easternmost Asia, faced severe drought conditions.

The report echoes the urgency for immediate and ambitious climate action, especially as the world prepares for COP28, with 2023 poised to etch its name in history as the hottest year on record. 

The report serves as a stark reminder of the perilous trajectory of our planet's climate and the critical need for immediate, decisive action.

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