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Retailers heading for a bumper Christmas despite new COVID-19 variant
Andrew WIlson
Europe;UK
Shoppers look at products inside Selfridges on Black Friday in the West End shopping district of London. /Reuters/May James

Shoppers look at products inside Selfridges on Black Friday in the West End shopping district of London. /Reuters/May James

 

Cyber Monday is the retail sector's second bite at the shopping cherry and all the signs so far are that it's paying off handsomely in the UK.

Incidents of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 are starting to appear across the country, rules on face masks have been tightened again and the medical authorities are rushing to expand the booster vaccine program.

But the shoppers so far appear undeterred, although unhappy in many cases about having to wear their masks again.

Ross Turner, an asset manager in London, says he's not worried but the politicians are scared, "despite hearing news that South Africans say it's [Omicron is] quite mild and not really a problem." He's resigned to the fact his Christmas will be affected.

 

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But the numbers already point to a different story.

Credit card companies have reported a 2.4 percent rise in Black Friday transactions compared with 2019.

And while Northern Europe gradually closes down, UK streets are still bustling with pre-holiday activity. The Christmas markets of Berlin and Munich are shuttered but in the English midlands city of Nottingham families are out at the Christmas fairs and the pubs are filled with drinkers.

There is barely a face mask in sight but the revellers know that's going to change again.

"It's just becoming a way of life," says a man holding his baby. "That's the worrying thing – when does it end?"

"It's going to be hard to get used to it again," says a woman in the same group. "Yeah, it's going to be rubbish."

Black Friday was traditionally a one-day event in the U.S.. Now it's not only turned into a month-long string of promotions across Europe, but it's also turned into the event that sets the tone for what retailers call the "golden quarter" – the run up to Christmas.

Shoppers, concerned about supply chains, have been buying early to avoid missing out.

Analysts are already predicting a UK Black Friday spend of $11.5bn, twice the amount spent last year, but more importantly way past the figure of $10.5bn from 2019.

And already European stocks have advanced on Monday after a sell-off at the end of last week triggered by the discovery of the Omicron variant, as investors adjusted to uncertainties ahead.

There may be a difficult Christmas in the calendar for Europe, but the retail sector has just received what might be a lifesaving boost.

Cover photo: Shoppers purchase a Christmas tree in Dulwich, London. Reuters/Tom Nicholson

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