Russia's President Vladimir Putin could have focused his annual state-of-the-nation address on the urgent issues of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic development, but jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the military build-up at the border with Ukraine took center stage in his speech.

Hours after the address, thousands of protesters took to the streets across Russia in support of Navalny, who is in a critical condition after his three-week hunger strike, which he started in a bid to receive adequate medical care from doctors of his choosing.

France and the U.S are among the countries that have threatened consequences if Navalny dies, but Nikolai Petrov, senior research fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House in London, doesn't think the protests would be too damaging to Putin's reputation, as he believes Navalny's supporters are in the minority.

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"The great portion of Russians, if we look at sociological views, do see Navalny as a kind of a problem rather than a hero who is now claiming a better future for them," Petrov said.

"I think that, in general, the Kremlin did fix the problem connected with Navalny's return and is not that much afraid of the wave of protests due to very tough measures last winter," explained Petrov, whose current work involves deconstructing the decision-making process in Russia, something that remains largely hidden from the public eye.

"A lot of Navalny's supporters are behind bars now and [among] those who remained representatives of his headquarters in regions, many have left the country. So Navalny's infrastructure in the country, which worked just like the political party, it's extremely weakened by the Kremlin.”

Another big issue for Putin is the simmering tensions with the West over Russia's conflict with Ukraine. The Russian president issued a warning in his annual address that Western allies should not cross a "red line" with Russia and any nation that does will "regret this as they have never regretted anything before."

The U.S. has described the growing number of Russian troops on the border as very concerning, while Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared the country is "ready for war." Petrov, however, believes there is interest in escalation from both Russia and Ukraine.

"Although it is understandable that in the core of the problem lies Russia's aggression with regards to Eastern Ukraine, now in my view at least the situation is aggravating due to the fact that both Moscow and Kiev are somehow interested in escalation of the situation there, because the positions of both Zelenskiy and his team and of Putin are weakening and popularity is going down."

Petrov explains that using this "kind of negative mobilization against the enemy" is important to the Kremlin "in order to create this 'rally-around-the-flag' effect" ahead of elections to the State Duma in September.

_{Cover image: Alexey DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/AFP}