Boyko Borisov makes a call for unity as he is likely to retain power after Bulgaria elections. /GERB Party/Handout/Reuters
Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has told opponents "you won't make it on your own" in a call for unity after an apparent surge in votes for the opposition in a parliamentary election he is still predicted to win.
His center-right GERB party is expected to win around 25 percent of the vote, according to exit polls published on Sunday evening after voting finished.
With his party's near decade in power undermined by scandals and protests, Borisov said, "I offer peace" in remarks directed at his opponents from the doorstep of his home.
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"You won't make it on your own... let's unite," he added, playing up his own experience and suggesting a cabinet of experts "to get out of the pandemic" after an election marked by coronavirus fears.
Opposition surge
Unexpectedly strong performances for new populist and anti-government protest parties mean it is unlikely to be easy for Borisov to form a coalition.
The exit polls suggest a new populist group, There is Such a Nation, led by talk show host and Borisov critic Slavi Trifonov, has won around 17 percent, neck-and-neck with the traditional main opposition Socialist party.
Isolated with COVID-19 symptoms, Trifonov wrote to followers on social media late Sunday, saying: "It is important what you did today! [...] Today you are the winners! You have requested power and change is inevitable."
Slavi Trifonov's party could play a key role in the forming of a new coalition in Bulgaria. /Handout/Reuters
Kingmaker
Analysts commented that Trifonov was set to steal the place of kingmaker from the Turkish minority Movement for Rights and Freedoms party, which was polling at around 11 percent.
"Bulgarian voters chose change," MRF leader Mustafa Karadaya said late Sunday, declining to answer questions on possible coalitions before he saw the final results.
Ognyan Minchev, director of Sofia's Institute for International Studies, judged that "there hasn't been [political] fragmentation like this since the 1990s."
He added: "The compromises to form a government will be very difficult, and if the talks succeed, the cabinet won't last more than a year."
Scandal
Support for GERB has been badly eroded by a series of scandals and months of sometimes violent protests last year over accusations the government was protecting oligarchs.
If borne out, the exit poll results would represent a fall of around nine points from the government's 2017 performance but some analysts called even this result "a remarkable feat" on the part of the embattled marathon premier.
Official results are not expected before Thursday.
President Rumen Radev, who supported last year's anti-government protests and has been a strong critic of Borisov, called the elections "a step towards returning to normality."
Protest parties
Two formations specifically targeting the votes of those who joined last year's demonstrations look to have garnered around 15 percent of the vote between them.
They are the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria coalition – the leader of which, Hristo Ivanov, encouraged the protests – and the Stand up! Mafia out! left-wing coalition, close to Radev.
Ivanov said on Sunday he was hoping for a "parliament with more legitimacy to launch a debate on change," but added that he would not enter the executive at any price.