Download
Rejoining EU would not make up for cost to Scottish economy of leaving UK, says report
Jim Drury
Europe;United Kingdom
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to hold a second independence referendum, in defiance of the UK government. /Jane Barlow/POOL/ AFP

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to hold a second independence referendum, in defiance of the UK government. /Jane Barlow/POOL/ AFP

 

A report from London School of Economics and City University of Hong Kong has suggested Scottish independence would shrink the country's economy by more than $3,750 per person.

The report, Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, Trade and Scottish independence, says independence would cost the Scottish economy $14.7 billion a year.

The authors said independence could be three times as costly as leaving the European Union, which the governing Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) opposed.

According to Fiona Hyslop, Scotland's economy secretary: "There is no reason whatsoever that Scotland could not emulate the success of independent countries of our size, which are far wealthier per head than the UK."

The SNP argues that Scotland has comparable strengths with other similar-sized countries and that its strengths in the energy, financial services and tourism sectors will help it thrive alone. The country is rich in natural resources.

The party believes low global interest rates would help Scotland borrow to fund deficits, while its plan to retain use of sterling would reduce risk.

 

READ MORE

London Chinese chef's Michelin stars

Will soldiers become obsolete?

Bringing back nature after Italy's olive crisis

 

Co-author Hanwei Huang, said: "This analysis shows that, at least from a trade perspective, independence would leave Scotland considerably poorer than staying in the United Kingdom."

The report found that Scottish income would fall by between 4.5 and 6.7 percent, even if Scotland stayed in a common trade market with the rest of the UK.

It also suggests that rejoining the EU, which the SNP has backed, would only have a marginal effect on reducing the deficit.

Thomas Sampson, associate professor of economics at LSE, and a co-author, said: "Rejoining the EU following independence would do little to mitigate [the overall trade costs] and in the short run would probably lead to greater economic losses than maintaining a common economic market with the rest of the UK."

The study found that the rest of the UK remains by far Scotland's largest trading partner, accounting for 61 percent of its exports and 67 percent of its imports – four times greater than its trade with the EU.

The authors' analysis covered the impacts of increased trading costs, but excluded other issues such as inward investment, immigration changes and tax changes. The Scottish government said those factors could help an independent Scotland boost its economy.

The report comes as Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to vow to legislate for a second referendum in the country's devolved parliament, even if the UK government refuses – as expected – to grant a vote.

A recent Panelbase poll suggested independence support among Scots at 49 percent, with 44 percent opposed and 7 percent of voters undecided.

A 2014 referendum, held before the UK voted to leave the EU, rejected independence with a 55/45 percent split.

Search Trends