COVID-19 is set to cost UK citizens almost 2 million years of life, according to estimates presented by the government's science advisers – and that's without factoring in the new variant recently discovered in the country. 

The numbers from a report into excess deaths and morbidity by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), presented to government on December 17 and recently released to the public.

Utilizing input from various government departments, the report assesses the impact not just of the coronavirus itself but the knock-on effects on emergency care, social care and elective care, which are predicted to total 1.3 million years of life lost. 

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With each person who dies from COVID-19 potentially having had many years of life in front of them, the number of years of life lost is significantly higher than the death toll.

Analysis of the effects over the next 50 years, including from pandemic-induced recession, predicted another 595,000 years of life lost. 

Furthermore, the report acknowledges that it was "written prior to evidence of increased transmissibility" of the new B.1.1.7 variant – admitting that "in reality, the health impacts estimated in this paper could be worse" because of it.  

Years of life lost

Between March 2020 and February 2021, the report estimates 1,220,000 years of life lost directly to COVID-19, with another 44,000 due to emergency-care problems, such as reduced capacity and patient reluctance to visit hospital. 

The report estimates a further 130,000 years of life lost due to what it calls adult social care, defined as including "early hospital discharge, non-COVID-19 medical emergencies, impacts of quality of primary care in care homes, patient safety impacts or patients not wanting to transfer to hospitals."

Despite its terrible toll, there have been health benefits from COVID-19, or rather from the resultant restrictions. Between March and December 2020, the report estimates 46,700 years of life gained from reduced tobacco-related illness, 42,900 years gained from lower pollution and 12,700 from fewer road accidents. 

However, even these ancillary benefits of lockdown have been outweighed by the negatives, including an estimated 17,800 years of life lost through alcohol abuse, 19,200 through home accidents and 19,700 to adult self-harm. 

Looking over the long-term effects, the report estimates another 4,900 years of life could be lost over the next 50 years through pandemic-caused delays to cancer diagnoses. However, a far greater loss of life – 590,000 years – is estimated from "pandemic-induced recession through increased unemployment, reduced income and wealth and increased uncertainty."

Quality-adjusted life years

The report also applies another metric, which it calls quality-adjusted life years or QALYs. Because one lost QALY is equal to losing a year of life in perfect health, QALYs are therefore weighted towards effects on healthier and younger people. 

The QALY numbers are therefore lower, but still sobering – and still totaling almost a million years by March, with another half-million years added over the next half-century. 

They include 910,000 years lost directly to COVID-19, with another 37,000 in emergency care and 88,000 in adult social care, slightly balanced by 48,000 years gained by health benefits from lower air pollution, road accidents and such. Adding in the next 50 years, the report estimates another 400,000 QALYs lost due to recession and 3,500 from delayed cancer diagnoses.