After COVID-19 spread around the world in early 2020, there were myriad calls for the UK government to delay its divorce from the European Union. It was thought a Brexit negotiation on future trading relations would be a bridge too far for any government in the situation the Johnson administration found itself in. 

But nearly a year later, and it's the 27-member bloc that fears pandemic-related shortages, and briefly triggered Article 16 of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TACA) – Article 16 being essentially an "emergency brake" that can suspend any part of the deal due to "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist" – over vaccine supply fears.  

The European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen spoke to UK leader Boris Johnson late on Friday evening and it was agreed the Article 16 would not be invoked, but only as long as pharma firms were "fulfilling contractual responsibilities."

How did Europe find itself here? 

This row stems from two of the biggest stories in Europe over the past few years: Brexit and the pandemic. It is both a disagreement between the EU and a private pharmaceutical firm, and over the Northern Irish border, which is now an external EU border with the UK. 

Northern Ireland is a province of the UK, but shares a landmass with the Republic of Ireland, which gives the UK its only land border. In 1998, after decades of violence, the Good Friday Agreement created peace between the communities – one crucial tenet being the dissolution of the border, meaning people and goods could travel freely between Northern Ireland and the Republic. 

Brexit threatened that, but eventually a deal was agreed which kept the border free of checks or infrastructure. But now it's the EU's vaccine row that's sparked fears of checks on the border. 

But isn't this about vaccines?

Well, yes and no. We will get to the vaccine detail, but it's important to first understand why this reaction to the vaccine "shortage" has caused such a big issue. 

In essence, the reason this issue exploded this week is the legal position of Northern Ireland and the Republic, which have been sewn together in a patchwork of compromise after years of political and sectarian violence. 

The Good Friday Agreement allowed free movement of people across the border, and allowed people born in Northern Ireland to identify as either British or Irish (or both if they so want). It was arguably held together by both the UK and Ireland's membership of the European Union – or at least that was the argument by "Remainers" who believed Brexit would destroy the fragile 20-year peace on the island of Ireland. 

One great victory for both sides of the 2020 TACA was the retention of the borderless border. When the UK left the EU, that was in serious question as the UK was now a "third country" not affiliated legally with the EU. That automatically means there must be a hard border, so the EU's Single Market can be protected from flooding by foreign goods. It was only negotiation and years of political wrangling that allowed the soft border to continue. 

On Friday the European Union said it would install border checks via an "emergency brake" in the TACA, due to an argument with pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca over where it was producing COVID-19 vaccine and where the drugs would then be distributed. The EU is still considering allowing member states to ban the export of vaccines.

READ MORE

Who should get vaccinated first?

How fish behave like cyclists

What's going on with the vaccine?

If you didn't think it was already incredibly complicated, well, hold on to your hats... 

Before there was an approved COVID-19 vaccine, the companies making the drugs signed huge production and distribution deals with individual countries and blocs such as the EU. One of the first firms to do this was AstraZeneca, which worked alongside the University of Oxford to develop a two-dose vaccine. 

But the vaccine maker then said there had been issues at one of its EU plants, and therefore the agreed amount of vaccine could not be delivered. It's thought around 60 percent of the agreed vaccine will be delivered to the EU. 

That row escalated, with the European Commission publishing a redacted copy of its contract with AstraZeneca. The bloc has questioned whether the firm has held its side of the deal, and suspect AstraZeneca of exporting vaccines out of the EU to fullfil other contracts. 

As a result it is implementing a new power – to allow member states to ban the export of vaccines if they face a shortage. The most acute shortage – that we are currently aware of is in Germany.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn warned there were not enough shots of the already approved Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines to stay on schedule. "We will still have at least 10 tough weeks with a shortage of vaccine," he tweeted.

-----------------------

From our Brussels correspondent Toni Waterman 

The new rules will require companies to seek permission to ship vaccines produced in Europe outside the bloc. According to an EU official, firms will need to give advanced notification on the amount being shipped and the final destination.  

Export decisions will be based on a set of yet-to-be-released criteria, but officials made it very clear they expect manufacturers to honor Europe's contractual obligations. "If our doses are delivered, there will be no further issues about the exports," said an EU official.  

The export controls come as Brussels locks horns with AstraZeneca over the delayed delivery of tens of millions of doses of its COVID-19 vaccine.  On Thursday, Belgian officials said they inspected a pharmaceutical factory AstraZeneca uses outside Brussels – at the Commission's request – to investigate whether the delays are actually due to a production glitch as the firm claims. The report is expected in the coming days.

-----------------------

What have the main players said?

Although Commission President Von der Leyen tweeted late on Friday night to confirm the emergency brake would not be pulled, it was not enough to stop an outpouring of dissent from the UK, Ireland, and Brussels.

The move to trigger Article 16 provoked immediate anger from London, Belfast and Dublin. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his "grave concerns," while Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster decried an "incredible act of hostility" that would reintroduce a "hard border" on the island.

Julian Smith, a Conservative Member of the UK parliament who served as Northern Ireland Minister in Theresa May's government, said it was almost "a Trumpian act" and he was "very pleased" when the decision was reversed. 

The EU said it had been an "oversight" to trigger the emergency measure. 

The Republic of Ireland Taoiseach Micheal Martin said it was a "welcome decision" and a "positive development." 

The bloc was not united over the decision – a striking difference to the perception of its position during Brexit talks – with leading trade figures speaking out publicly. 

Bernd Lange, the chair of the European Parliament's trade committee, tweeted his objections, saying Europe wasn't leading by example and raised concerns that an export ban "could have a domino effect and trigger export restrictions elsewhere."