The pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) of President Milo Djukanovic could be ousted from power in Montenegro elections by a pro-Serbia and Russia alliance.

Analysis of all the ballots from a sample of polling stations show the DPS has 34.8 percent of votes, according to pollsters CEMI.

But the alliance of mainly Serb nationalist parties that want closer ties with Serbia and Russia could secure 41 deputies in the 81-seat parliament.

If their main pro-Serb rivals join forces with two other opposition blocs, DPS could be removed from power in what would be a political earthquake for the small Adriatic nation of 620,000 people.

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The DPS has never lost an election, with Djukanovic leading Montenegro since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s to independence from Serbia and more recently into NATO and towards the EU.

But this year the party faced a stiff challenge from an emboldened right-wing and pro-Serb camp that wants closer links with Belgrade and Moscow.

Projections by CEMI give the three main opposition parties a lead of just one seat, with 41.

A period of intense talks are expected to follow, with Djukanovic, in his role as president, ultimately responsible for handing down the first mandate.

While the opposition's victory is not assured, the results were a "watershed" moment for the country and "good news for democracy," Florian Bieber, an expert on the Balkans, told AFP.

It remains to be seen if the opposition parties, which range from far-right Serb nationalists to a civic-minded liberal camp, can forge a working alliance.

"The range is so wide that tensions are inevitable and the question is whether a new government would be able to survive these tensions," said Bieber, adding that any small defections could bring DPS back to power.

The DPC has been branded corrupt by opponents, while a government law involving the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) has caused particular controversy.

Passed in late 2019, the religion law opened a path for hundreds of SPC-run monasteries in Montenegro to become state property.

This ignited huge anti-government protests, led by priests and backed by the pro-Serb opposition, which accuses Djukanovic of trying to erase the country's heritage. 

While Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in 2006, a third of its population identify as Serb and the SPC remains its largest religious institution, making debates around identity highly sensitive.

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Throughout the church row, Djukanovic presented himself as the guardian of Montenegrin nationhood, saying it was threatened by Serb nationalist forces.

Speaking at the party's headquarters, Djukanovic underlined that DPS had the "strongest" finish in the poll and that the "struggle for the majority is still on."

But Zdravko Krivokapic, the leader of the main pro-Serb alliance, announced triumphantly that "the regime has fallen."

Supporters celebrated on Sunday night in the streets of Podgorica, waving Serbian flags and setting off fireworks outside the largest Orthodox church in the capital.

Leaders of the other main opposition parties were also in high spirits, with Dritan Abazovic, from the liberal Black on White party, declaring that "Mafia will no longer rule Montenegro."

Djukanovic, who is now serving his second term as president after four stints as premier, will not face election himself until 2023.

While he has won plaudits for making Montenegro a front-runner in the Balkans on its path to joining the EU, Djukanovic's critics accuse him of turning Montenegro into a personal fiefdom built on graft and crime links.

The US-based Freedom House rights group recently downgraded Montenegro from a democracy to a "hybrid regime" under Djukanovic's "strongman" rule.