EXPLAINER: who's set to win the UK election and what are they promising?

Britain heads to the ballot box on July 4 to decide who will run the country, with opinion polls indicating a definitive end to 14 years of Conservative rule. But the actual make-up of what they will be replaced by is less certain. 

Amid one of the most turbulent periods in the UK's modern political history, here's what you need to know about the main parties running in the snap vote, their campaign pledges, and where they stand on the biggest issues driving the electorate of one of the world's biggest economies. 

Labour

The traditionally left-of-center Labour Party, out of power for over a decade, is poised to capitalize on the collapse in support for the ruling Conservatives. Under the centrist leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, Labour has consistently led national polls by around 20 points. This success, according to the party leadership, stems from a decisive shift to the political center, covering key issues all the way from immigration to investment.

In fact, since taking over the party from Labour leftist Jeremey Corbyn, Starmer has made it a priority to convince the UK electorate - and perhaps more importantly British business and the country's institution - that he is nothing like his predecessor. 

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That's included distancing Labour from Corbyn's ambitious left-wing agenda and anti-austerity rhetoric, adopting a more nationalist, business-friendly, and "pragmatic" economic approach that emphasizes "fiscal responsibility" and "British values". He has also addressed erstwhile allegations of antisemitism in the party by throwing Labour's full support behind Israel, a difficult balancing act amid the war on Gaza. 

The pivot from a Corbyn-era Labour has indeed garnered the party broader electoral and media support after its historic defeat in 2019. Starmer's allies have even gone so far as to purge a slew of left-wing MPs associated with the former leadership, including Corbyn himself who is standing as an independent this time. 

While this strategy has coincided with a breakdown in Conservative support and seems to be working as the opposition heads for a potential parliamentary majority, Starmer's new Labour is not without its critics. Detractors argue that the current leader struggles to articulate a compelling vision, saying that his communication style remains uninspiring and overly cautious. Whether that will hurt him in the polls will have to be seen. 

The Conservatives

After their resounding victory in the 2019 UK general election under the affable Boris Johnson, the UK's other main political party, the Conservatives, have experienced a host of calamities that has left them in a precarious situation ahead of next month's vote. 

Admittedly, Tory leader and current prime minister Rishi Sunak took the reins of the UK's main right-wing party under difficult conditions. Trust in the Conservatives first started to tank amid the so-called 'Partygate Scandal' where a series of illegal parties were held at Tory HQ during the height of the pandemic, with Tory leader Johnson personally implicated.

He later resigned and was replaced for a short time by Liz Truss. She would also be forced to resign after just 45 days following backlash over her economic policies, particularly the controversial mini-budget that led to a temporary financial meltdown in the UK, further eroding public trust in the party.  

While the British economy is starting to recover on paper, issues such as inflation, joblessness, and dwindling economic growth continue to dog the Conservatives. And since they have been in power for 14 years in power, it has been difficult to lay the blame for the UK's economic woes at Labour's door.  

In fact, a recent survey found public trust and confidence in government has fallen to record lows, with 45 percent 'almost never' trusting them to put the needs of the nation above the interests of their own political party. 

Sunak is hoping to counter this slump by pledging tax cuts, leaning into the so-called 'Culture Wars', and promising to cut immigration levels if his party wins. However, UK immigration figures continue to rise despite Tory promises to reduce numbers. Add the failure of Sunak's flagship policy to send irregular migrants to Rwanda and Labour's move to the right on immigration, the Conservatives focus on immigration could be a double-edged sword. 

Liberal Democrats 

Historically, the UK's third-largest party has been the centrist Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems). Although they have previously shared power with the Conservatives, the UK's electoral system rarely allows smaller parties like the Lib Dems to win national elections. However, they often influence the debate, and current leader Sir Ed Davey hopes Brexit-related discontent will boost his party's support.

The Lib Dems have historically championed the EU. Although Davey has softened the party's anti-Brexit stance, he is still pledging to push for Britain to rejoin the European single market and eventually the EU, aiming to attract voters dissatisfied by the handling of Brexit. However, his message of European integration is proving to be far less popular than the one of Brexit's most ardent supporter.

Reform, the SNP, the Greens, and other UK parties

The surprise return of Brexit campaigner and hard-right populist Nigel Farage to frontline politics mid-campaign has further damaged Tory prospects. He's leading the former Brexit Party, now known as Reform UK, and campaigning on a mission to bring net immigration down to zero. 

Using immigration as a stick to beat the Conservatives from the right appears to be working; Farage's party is surging in the polls, with Reform overtaking the Tories for the first time ever, according to one recent opinion poll. But again, with the UK's electoral system favoring the UK's two main parties, it remains to be seen whether this will translate into gaining MPs. Farage has stood and failed to gain election seven times. Nevertheless, he remains one of the most influential politicians in the UK.

Another key factor is the Scottish National Party (SNP), the third most popular party in the last UK vote. Despite leading Scotland for 17 years, the SNP faces significant challenges this time. First Minister John Swinney admits the party is under pressure following the collapse of a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens and a high-profile police investigation into its finances involving the husband of a former leader.

Then, there's the Greens, who are hoping to attract disillusioned former Labour voters, alienated by the party's rightward swing. They're calling for major wealth distribution and demanding the UK scale up actions against the Israeli government amid the war on Gaza. 

Finally, there are other regional parties such as Plaid Cymru in Wales and various Northern Irish parties like Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) that play significant roles in their respective regions, as well as independent candidates. 

Where do the parties stand on the issues?  

Here's a breakdown of the parties' various stances on the most important issues for UK voters:

The economy

Conservatives - The cost of living crisis, still a major source of anger, means that reigniting economic growth is key to the Tories’ manifesto. It says it will achieve this through tax cuts, promising reductions of £17.2 billion ($21.8bn) in tax a year by 2029.

Labour - Its plan focuses on wealth creation. It will be "pro-business and pro-worker" and introduce a new industrial strategy, which will end short-term economic policy. But importantly, there will be no tax raises "for working people" and it will cap corporation tax at the current level of 25 percent.

Liberal Democrats - It wants a better economic relationship with the European Union, including access to the single market, and an industrial strategy focused on renewables and other sectors.

Green - It wants to raise taxes for the wealthy, invest more in health, and bring railways, energy companies and water providers back under state control.

Reform - It wants to reduce government spending and corporation tax, but raise the minimum income tax threshold and abolish inheritance tax for any estates under £2 million ($2.5m).

Immigration

Conservatives - The party has promised to bring in a strict cap for legal migration. On illegal migration, it says monthly flights will take those arriving on small boats across the Channel to Rwanda.

Labour - The party wants to bring in restrictions on visas and train UK national where there are domestic shortages instead of relying on migrant labor. On illegal migration, it will scrap the government's Rwanda plan, and focus on stopping people-smuggling gangs and beefing up border security.

LibDems - It will tackle people-smuggling, lift the ban on asylum seekers working and scrap the government's Rwanda scheme.

Green - It wants to help migrants "put down roots". It would end the minimum income requirement for spouses of work visa holders and provide safe routes for those fleeing persecution. It also wants to rejoin the EU as soon as possible. 

Reform - It has pledged to introduce a migrant tax forcing employers to pay an increased National Insurance rate for every foreign employee, in an overall bid to create a “one in, one out” migration quota.

Health and social care

Conservatives - Anger over ever-tighter healthcare services and increased patient waiting times means the party has committed to fund the ailing National Health Service above inflation and recruit 92,000 more nurses and 28,000 more doctors.

Labour - It will cut waiting times by adding 40,000 more appointments for patients every week and will also double the number of cancer scanners after complaints over limited services.

LibDems - It has pledged a £9 billion ($11.4bn) package commitments, including increasing the number of community doctors and higher pay for care workers.

Green - The party wants to increase the NHS budget by £8 billion ($10.1bn) in the first year, rising to £28 billion by 2030.

Reform - It wants to cut NHS waiting lists to zero in two years, an income tax exemption for front-line workers, to adopt a French-style healthcare system, and a public inquiry into vaccine harm.

Climate

Conservatives - The party wants to cut the cost of tackling climate change, while sticking with its 2050 net zero target. It pledged to treble offshore wind, scale up nuclear, partly through using new Small Modular Reactors, and promised no new green levies or charges.

Labour - It will aim for clean power by 2030 by doubling onshore wind, tripling solar power and quadrupling offshore wind. It will establish state-owned Great British Energy, backed by 8.3 billion pounds, and it will not issue new licences for oil and gas fields in the North Sea.

LibDems - It has committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2045 at the latest.

Green - The party wants to stop all new fossil fuel extraction in Britain, phase out nuclear power, and rely increasingly on wind power plus solar.

Reform - It wants to abandon existing carbon emission targets, accelerate oil and gas extraction in the North Sea, scrap annual green energy subsidies and nationalize 50 percent of utility companies.

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