Two years and counting: Russia advancing as Ukraine pleads for bullets

Russian forces have advanced further to the west after taking control of the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, its defense ministry said, piling pressure on Kyiv with the conflict now reaching its two year anniversary. 

The ministry said Russian forces had also destroyed a number of Western-provided Ukrainian weapons in the past week, including seven UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, a U.S. Patriot anti-aircraft guided missile and launch vehicle and 42 HIMARS rockets. Kyiv warned on Friday that Russia was intensifying attacks around the new "hot spot" of Maryinka, a town to the west of the Moscow-controlled stronghold of Donetsk city.

Ukraine has faced intense pressure on its eastern front in recent months as it grapples with ammunition shortages and hold-ups to much-needed Western military aid.

The frontlines in the conflict, which is heading into its third year, had not shifted substantially since late 2022 before the taking of Avdiivka, and Russia still controls just under a fifth of Ukrainian territory. The capture of Avdiivka, following months of fighting with heavy casualties on both sides, was Russia's first significant gain since taking the city of Bakhmut last May.

After taking Avdiivka, Russian forces "continued advancing in a westerly direction," the defense ministry added. Meanwhile, Ukraine said its forces had struck a Russian training ground in the south, on the Moscow-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro river. Kyiv has managed to hold a thin bridgehead on the eastern bank of the river in the southern Kherson region since last year, but its forces have not made further progress inland.

Ukraine is heading into the third year of the conflict facing what its defense minister Rustem Umerov called a "critical" deficit of artillery ammunition as he implored Ukraine's allies to send more. Russia is currently able to fire several times more artillery shells than Ukraine, according to Ukrainian soldiers and officials.

The U.S. has been Ukraine's biggest backer, but aid supply is currently in question as Republicans in Congress block the passage of a crucial aid bill. "We often look at the video feeds of our drone pilots, they show us pictures from the frontline. Russians try to attack our positions. If we had more ammunition, we could have stopped them," said one Ukrainian artilleryman fighting in the Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues his charm offensive with European leaders hoping for further contributions following the EU's landmark approval in February for a $54 billion aid package. Kyiv will also have been buoyed this week by Denmark becoming the latest NATO member to sign a 10-year agreement on security cooperation.

The bilateral agreements, already signed by the UK, Germany and France, follow a pledge by the Group of Seven nations last year to establish bilateral "long term security commitments and arrangements" with Ukraine. Danish F-16 jets are expected to be in action before the summer.

Territory aside, and despite the limited official figures released by either side, there is no question that the human cost of 24 months of conflict is staggering.

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On Thursday, Ukraine's military said Russia had sustained 407,240 casualties since February 2022, including 1,160 in the previous 24 hours. In an operational update on Wednesday, Russia's Defense Ministry said Ukraine had lost almost 1,200 troops in the previous day. Moscow does not provide running tallies of purported Ukrainian losses.

In its latest report, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine revealed there had been 30,457 civilian casualties since the start of the conflict. This comprised 10,582 killed and 19,875 injured.

Some military experts believe the conflict is at a stalemate, with Russian President Vladimir Putin awaiting the results of the upcoming U.S. and EU elections before deciding on his next strategy. 

Putin has looked in confident mood in recent weeks and particularly so on Thursday while flying on a Tu-160M nuclear-capable strategic bomber. He stated that 95 percent of Russia's strategic nuclear forces had been modernized and that its Air Force had just taken delivery of four new supersonic nuclear-capable bombers.

The Russian leader praised soldiers fighting in what he calls a "special military operation," hailing them as heroes battling for "truth and justice."

Zelenskyy addressed the Munich Security Conference last week, saying Ukraine needed more weapons, particularly artillery and long-range weapons.

He warned that his country could not win the conflict without support. He added: "2024 must become a time for a full restoration of a rules-based world order."

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