VDL as EPP candidate for ECP?…it's TBC

Ursula von der Leyen has revealed what most people suspected: that she is seeking a second term as European Commission President. The announcement came at the Berlin headquarters of her Christian Democratic Party (CDU). 

Von der Leyen has spent recent months cosying up to Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader in German Parliament in order to gain his support. Merz told reporters that Von der Leyen had been nominated "unanimously" by the party membership.

VDL, as she is often known, will now go to the European People's Party (EPP), the conservative bloc within the European Parliament and to which the CDU belongs, to seek their backing as its 'Spitzenkandidaten' - lead candidate. 

The announcement of EPP's Spitzenkandidat will be decided at the group's conference to be held in Bucharest, Romania, from March 6-7.

There's still a long way to go in the race to become the next Commission President, with some suggesting that current Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas could throw her hat into the ring as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe candidate. 

However, Kallas was only elected as PM last year, so would have to weigh up how much of a snub to domestic politics this would be judged to be. On the plus side for Kallas she is not from France or Germany, something that would go down particularly well with some in Brussels, not least the French and Germans. 

EU Commissioner Thierry Breton was tipped strongly by French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of last year, while Manfred Webber was close to becoming the EPP's lead candidate in 2019 but was beaten at the line by Von der Leyen.

In announcing that she would be running for another five-year term after remaining tight-lipped on her future for months, Von der Leyen said her decision wasn't taken lightly.

She announced: "I am taking a very conscious and well-considered decision. I would like to run for a second term in office, and I am very grateful to the CDU for nominating me as the top candidate for the EPP."

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If she wins the EPP nomination, Von der Leyen will then require the group to win the lion's share of seats in European parliamentary elections scheduled for early June.

To take office, a candidate for the EU Commission President's role must be nominated by leaders of the member states and then voted through by the EU Parliament. The threshold they have to pass is 374 out of 705 available votes. 

Back in 2019, Von der Leyen crossed that line with 383 votes, seeing support from the EPP Conservatives alongside the socialists and liberals. She won the backing of the most pro-EU parties within the European Parliament.

This time around, the elections could see the protest vote against the current governments in a number of member states see an increase in support for far-right parties. This is particularly likely in Germany, France and the Netherlands, where migration, foreign policy and the economy are expected to be the main issues. 

How large a chunk of the vote those parties take and how that impacts the Commission President mathematics will be seen in late June.

Von der Leyen has set out a plan that includes the introduction of a Commissioner for Defense and a platform of increased defense spending across the bloc. She told those gathered in Berlin that she was proud of what she had accomplished in her current term, but still had unfinished business and goals for the EU's climate and defense policies.

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