Middle East on a 'knife edge' after Hamas leader death and Iran blasts

WATCH: Colin P. Clarke of Soufan Group on the consequences for the Middle East

The outlook for peace after three months of war between Israel and Hamas is bleak, with the prospect of the conflict spreading dangerously after a deadly 24 hours in the region.

A drone strike killed Hamas senior leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon on Tuesday, followed by twin explosions killing 103 mourners at the commemoration of the slain Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Iran on the fourth anniversary of his killing.

Following Tuesday's unclaimed Beirut attack, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the military was in a "very high state of readiness in all arenas" and "highly prepared for any scenario."

Colin P. Clarke, Director of Policy and Research at Soufan Group, told CGTN Europe: "There's really a lot of tension in the region... It suggests the potential for real spillover violence and dragging in other actors, including highly capable actors like Hezbollah. 

"It also brings the shadow war between Israel and Iran a little bit closer to the surface. Layered on top of that, there was a major attack against the shrine of Soleimani in Iran with a lot of speculation on who was behind that. 

"What it all adds up to is heightened instability, which only means worse things for the Middle East. The region is on a knife edge and a lot of potential for a miscalculation, which would only raise the stakes further."

WATCH: Mohammad Marandi reflects on the deadly blasts in Iran

Violence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen has spiked amid the Gaza war sparked by the October 7 attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982, has meanwhile vowed retaliation against its foe Israel, which it blamed for the drone strike in its Shiite Muslim stronghold of southern Beirut.

Clarke described the killing of Saleh al-Arouri as a "big loss" for Hamas, adding it was a signal from Israel to other Hamas members that "wherever they are in the region, that they could be next."

"This could be the beginning of a targeted assassination campaign by the Israelis, which they've conducted before," Clarke said. "It means the peace talks that were already quite precarious could be shelved, at least temporarily. The elephant in the room here is still the issue of the hostages, who are still being held in Gaza. 

"The Israeli government is facing a lot of pressure domestically to get those hostages home. So while there's a great need for negotiations, all the kind of kinetic action and violence makes that more difficult for all sides involved."

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With the full details still to emerge on who was responsible for Wednesday's explosions in the southern city of Kerman in Iran, an academic and political analyst in Tehran believes Israel may have been behind it.

Mohammad Marandi told CGTN Europe: "One possibility is that ISIS was involved, but also the Israeli regime because it's trying to expand the war.

"The assassinations (on Tuesday) in Beirut and the killing of the Iranian general in Syria last week alongside this could possibly be an attempt to expand the war. 

"On the other hand, it could be an attempt by (Israel Prime Minister) Netanyahu to tell the public that 'look, I've killed senior figures in Iran, I've killed senior figures in Hamas, I've leveled Gaza, I won.' That would perhaps help him with his political survival."

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