What will happen in Ukraine in 2024?

Israel's war with Hamas has captured the attention of the world's media over the past two months, but in Ukraine a near two-year long conflict is continuing with no end in sight.

Fighting broke out on February 24, 2022, when Russian tanks, infantry and fighter jets crossed over into Ukrainian territory and bombarded towns and cities in a shock attack before dawn.

Russia labeled it a special operation aimed at ridding Nazism from Ukraine and reclaiming land it lost following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. 

It was expected that Ukraine would be quickly overwhelmed by the firepower of Russia's military, but with help from Western countries, Ukraine has showed resolve. 

Now, with a third year of fighting fast approaching, the question is what happens next?

A conflict at a stalemate

Over the past 22 months, a gruelling conflict has played out. After weathering Russia's early attack, support from Western allies in the form of military and financial aid saw Ukraine fight back.

As it stands, Russia currently occupies roughly 15 percent of Ukraine's territory, having formally annexed four regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk in September 2022.

But while Ukraine has pushed back and regained some occupied towns and villages, their counter-offensive has stalled and Russia has struggled to make any further advancements.

Russia playing the long game

Jamie Shea, a former NATO official and now professor of strategy and security at the University of Exeter, believes Russia is committed to a lengthy battle that could go on for years.

"Russia wins by not losing," he said to CGTN Europe. "Putin is clearly in for the long haul. He made that clear during his press conference. He said that the initial Russian war aims, which is to demilitarize the Nazi for Ukraine have not changed. 

"So that suggests that Putin is not prepared at this stage, at least, to go for a more limited victory in terms of simply hanging onto the 17 percent of Ukraine that Russia has occupied and annexed. He wants the whole lot, including the downfall of the Zelenskyy regime."

Ukraine's reliance on the West

Ukraine has received huge financial backing from the West, particularly from the United States. Earlier this week, the White House approved another tranche of US military aid to Ukraine worth some $250m. 

Prior to that new package, the U.S. has pledged €43.9 billion ($55.9 billion) to Ukraine between February 2022 and October 2023. Ukraine had also received €5.6 billion ($7.1 billion) from the EU over the same time period.

But that level of support is putting pressure on the purse strings of Western countries and there are fears if aid dries up, Ukraine will fold to the military might of Russia.

"The problem, of course, is that we now have this potential Ukraine fatigue from both America and the EU simultaneously," says Shea. "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine. 

"America could say, 'look the EU is doing less' and (if they reduce aid), the EU could say 'America isn't in the fight anymore, why should we care about this more than them?'" 

No Ukrainian will for peace talks, says Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov restated Russia's complaint that Ukraine was unwilling to hold peace talks to end the 22-month-old conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a 'special military operation'.

"I must note an absence of any will for peace on the part of the regime of (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy," Lavrov told Tass.

"His representatives think only in categories of war and resort to totally aggressive rhetoric. There is no consideration of holding peace talks... Draw your own conclusions."

Zelenskyy has ruled out talks with Moscow until it withdraws from territories it has occupied since February 2022.

Russian spending pushed to the limit

Finances could play a key role in Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine in 2024, too. Shea explained: "Russia, believe it or not, is now spending as a proportion of its GDP more on defense than the Soviet Union did. Soviet Union 14 percent, Russia now 20 percent."

He added: "On the Russian domestic front, the Russian economy is beginning to crack. But economists say that, of course, all of this defense spending over the long run is going to cause a lot of inflation, reduce Russian living standards."

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