When in 2024 will UK PM Rishi Sunak call a general election?

At the Christmas drinks for the media in December, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists the next general election will be in 2024, thereby ruling out a January 2025 election. That's the legal deadline for letting voters decide who runs the country for the next five years. 

In the weeks and months ahead, there is expected to be plenty of talk about when Sunak is going to call it. 

As things stand at the start of 2024, the polls suggest his Conservative party is heading for a defeat.

READ MORE

What will happen in Ukraine in 2024?

Could 2024 be the greatest ever year for Space exploration?

A year in movies: strikes, spectacles, and cinema's resilience

Towards the end of last year the polls narrowed a bit but throughout 2023, Politico's Poll of Polls demonstrated no less than a 15-point lead for the opposition Labour Party, which had widened to 18 points by the end of the year. 

Polling by Ipsos and YouGov shows the economy, health and immigration remain voters' biggest concerns which is why the Prime Minister made five pledges at the start of 2023: halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the national debt, shrink National Health Service waiting lists, and stop migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats.

By the end of 2023, only one of those pledges had been met - inflation halved - although there's debate over how much credit the government should get, given inflation was always going to fall around the world. Ministers say tough decisions on limiting public sector pay rises helped curb inflation. 

Migrants crossing the channel are down by a third but the boats haven't stopped. 

Split in Sunak's Conservative party

The government insists it must be allowed to deport 'illegal' immigrants to Rwanda and that the ability to do so will act as a deterrent but that plan remains in doubt. 

First thwarted by UK courts who said Rwanda wasn't a safe country, the government now says its Safety of Rwanda bill will ensure flights can leave by spring 2024. 

The bill states Rwanda is a safe country to send 'illegal' immigrants to, and forces UK judges to ignore some parts of the country's Human Rights Act. 

It passed its first reading before Christmas with no Conservative MPs voting against it. A significant number chose not to vote at all because of a split in the party over what the bill should say and do. 

The right of the party wants the bill amended so it's less vulnerable to legal challenges but by doing so, the PM risks alienating the moderates within his party if they think the bill would break international human rights law. 

Expect this split to resurface when the bill returns to the House of Commons for its second vote soon, which, if the government were to lose that vote, may trigger a general election sooner rather than later. 

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak's pledges will continue to be scrutinized. 

Regarding the National Health Service, waiting lists for treatment are longer compared to last January. And the national debt is piling up while the economy is stagnant.

On the other hand, Labour party, after 14 years in opposition, is trying to cash in on the "change" that they can offer. But the question remains, what would Labour do if it was in charge?

What can Labour offer?

Led by 61-year-old former lawyer, Keir Starmer, Labour will come under growing pressure to outline how the party plans to improve public services, without borrowing more money or raising taxes to spend more. 

Unsurprisingly, the opposition leader has said growing the economy would be an "obsession" under his Labour government and that the increased tax revenues from that growth would help fund public services. 

Other than liberalizing regulations on building houses and infrastructure, Starmer is expected to announce more detail on economic growth as the year progresses. 

He has also been meeting with world leaders - although there aren't likely to be any major foreign policy changes from a Labour-led UK. Starmer's stance on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East is closely aligned to that of the government. Following initial resistance to the calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, led to resignations from some of Labour's shadow cabinet members.

The party says its number one priority will be improving UK-EU trade and relations but that doesn't mean re-opening the Brexit debate.

On the so-called special relationship with the U.S., little would change if Joe Biden wins the November election but Starmer concedes he would have to make the relationship work if Donald Trump was re-elected.

But he will only need to do that if the UK polls are right, and they have been wrong before.

If the last few years have taught us anything about British politics, it is safe to say a year is plenty of time for a lot to change.

Subscribe to Storyboard: A weekly newsletter bringing you the best of CGTN every Friday