Turkyiye's incumbent leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks set to defy expectations that he would lose power after taking the lead in a razor-tight campaign for the Presidency.

With nearly all votes counted, Erdogan's right wing 'Peoples' Alliance' has secured 49.3 percent of the vote in the presidential poll. That compares to 44.9 percent for the opposition National Alliance, the six-party group that had joined forces to fight him.  

However, a stronger than expected performance from right wing nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan has prevented either side gaining the 50 percent needed for an outright victory. A second round run-off could follow in two weeks.

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Speaking to his supporters from the balcony of his party headquarters in Ankara, Erdogan described the result as a "feast for democracy," adding that "the winner has undoubtedly been our country." 

But opposition leader, the veteran Republican Kemal Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan of "lies and attacks," saying "No one should be enthusiastic about this being a done deal (for the AKP)."

Markets reacted badly to the result. With Erdogan pledging on the campaign trail to hold fast to his policy of low interest rates, the Turkish lira plunged to its lowest point since February's earthquake. 

Figures from Goldman Sachs show the market is now pricing a fifty per cent fall in the currency over the next twelve months. Elsewhere, on the Istanbul stock market circuit breakers were temporarily imposed after equities plunged seven per cent in early trading. 

Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer, described the result as "a major disappointment to investors" who had hoped an opposition election victory would usher in a return to more orthodox economic management.

With a run-off scheduled for May 28, all eyes are on wildcard candidate Ogan whose support could now determine the overall winner in a second poll. 

Ogan has warned Kilicdaroglu that his backing will depend on the National Alliance severing its ties with the pro-Kurdish HDP.

The HDP, which withdrew from the presidential race to boost the opposition's chances at the polls, controls around a tenth of the popular vote in Turkiye. Its endorsement has been deemed crucial for Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's poll. 

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