Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who canceled a series of public events this week, rejoined the campaign trail on Saturday, appearing in public for the first time since falling ill.

The Turkish leader, alongside the president of Azerbaijan and the Ankara-backed premier of Libya, addressed rapturous crowds at the Teknofest air show in Istanbul as well as in the opposition stronghold of Izmir.

There was no sign of the illness – reportedly a stomach bug – that led him to halt a speech during a live broadcast on Tuesday and pull out of a series of campaign events just two weeks ahead of Türkiye's critical elections.

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Erdogan is heading into one the most divisive elections of his political career, a vote which has essentially become a referendum on his two decades in power.

Currently, he stands just behind or neck-and-neck with secular opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead of the May 14 parliamentary and presidential ballot. 

Referendum on Erdogan's track record

Vast swathes of Turkish society still back the social conservative leader for removing religious restrictions and bringing modern homes and jobs to millions of people through construction and state investment.

He is credited with building hospitals, airports and highways that have stimulated trade and opened up the country's center and east to more trade.

Erdogan also gained support from religious conservative women for allowing them to stay veiled in school and in the civil service, a right that had not existed in the secular state since its foundation in 1923.

However, he is facing a backlash over his government's response to the February earthquake that led to the deaths of more than 50,000 people.

There is also the issue of Türkiye's ongoing economic crisis. In a bid to fight inflation, Erdogan's government slashed interest rates, which led to the lira losing more than half its value and inflation hitting 85 percent. 

Millions lost their savings and fell into debt, with polls showing the economy is the main concern of the Turkish electorate. 

Outside interference

The president has so far campaigned on the issues that have won him support in the past, raising the specter of "terrorism" and saying only he could deliver growth. 

Some of Erdogan's more hawkish ministers have returned to attacking alleged foreign interference in Türkiye's internal affairs, an ongoing complaint from the government for the past decade.  

This has included sounding warnings about the U.S. leading Western efforts to undermine his government through the polls.

Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu referred Friday to President Joe Biden's 2019 suggestion that Washington should embolden the opposition "to take on and defeat Erdogan."

"July 15 was their actual coup attempt," Soylu said of a failed 2016 military coup that Erdogan blamed on a U.S.-based Muslim preacher.

"And May 14 is their political coup attempt."

Breaking with tradition

However, such accusations may not be enough to counter the campaign promises from the opposition leader Kilicdarogl, who represents the traditionally secular CHP party of Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

While many Turks fear a return to non-religious government – Kilicdarogl was heavily criticized for walking on a Muslim prayer rug with his shoes – he has pledged to introduce a law guaranteeing women's right to wear headscarves in a bid to soothe concerns among the country's religious right.

The opposition leader has also vowed to stabilize Türkiye's economy by breaking with the government's highly centralized 'Turkish economy model' and bringing back Western investors who fled the financial problems of Erdogan's more recent rule.

Amid the Ukraine crisis, rekindling frayed relations with the West – including pursuing EU membership, which has long been on hold – is also been a mainstay of Kilicdarogl's campaign.

However, the Turkish electorate remain heavily divided on the key issues, while the question remains whether voters will be willing to break with 20 years of continuity – albeit rocky. 

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