Marine Le Pen is polling well among under-50s, but French senior citizens are backing incumbent president Emmanuel Macron. /Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters
Marine Le Pen is polling well among under-50s, but French senior citizens are backing incumbent president Emmanuel Macron. /Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters
The old adage goes that the older you get, the more right-wing you get. But in the first round of this year's French presidential elections, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen's support declined dramatically among those aged over 60.
Instead, senior citizens – one of the most powerful voting blocks in France – backed centrist incumbent president Emmanuel Macron.
Only around a fifth of 59- to 69-year-olds lent their support to the anti-immigration firebrand, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll, compared to Macron's 30 percent. For those over 70, the gap was even wider: four in 10 voted for Macron, while just 13 percent backed Le Pen.
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As reliable voters in an election that could see record abstention rates, senior citizens will be key to deciding the next French president. So why, after historically backing France's right wing, are older voters bucking the trend and lending their votes to a liberal over a social conservative?
Left-wing swing
First, while Le Pen may be more radically right-wing on immigration, her populist economic platform has swung dramatically to the left this election – and in ways that may not appeal to older voters seeking to protect their own assets.
This includes relatively progressive pledges to scrap income tax for the under-30s and reduce VAT on energy. While advocating policies more commonly espoused by France's left may have won Le Pen support with under-50s, older voters appear to take seriously the president's warnings, most commonly espoused by the right, that such a leftist economic plan is fantasy.
In contrast, Macron's tax cuts and welfare crackdown resonate more with a traditional right-wing voter base. And according to a recent Elabe poll for BFM-TV, seniors are the only age group to be in favor of his highly contested plans to raise France's retirement age to 65.
Le Pen opposes the pension reforms, but the majority of Macron's older supporters won't be impacted by the changes. Fundamentally, wealthier older voters see Macron as a safer pair of hands protecting their economic interests.
European security
Another factor limiting Le Pen's popularity among senior citizens is her long-held euro-skepticism. Unlike in the UK, where seniors voted overwhelmingly for Brexit, older French voters tend to support France's role in the EU. While Le Pen says she no longer supports Frexit, she has been accused of wanting to leave the bloc by stealth, saying she would renegotiate EU free trade and movement.
Here, security is the watchword as a key issue for the entire French electorate this year, but particularly for older people. Such a radical shake-up of the EU at a time when the Ukraine conflict is raging on its doorstep may scare off many older voters.
Macron, who has inherited Angela Merkel's de facto role as EU leader, has convincingly helped steer Europe through the Ukraine crisis. He also managed to beat back the debilitating 'yellow vests' protests – unpopular amongst older right-wing French voters – and the COVID-19 pandemic with strict measures that helped protect French seniors.
That likely makes him a more reliable choice for older voters when choosing the next leader of the EU's most powerful military force and second biggest economy.
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French President Emmanuel Macron on the campaign trail near Strasbourg. /Johanna Geron/Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron on the campaign trail near Strasbourg. /Johanna Geron/Reuters
Extreme nationalism
Then there's the problem of Le Pen's long-standing links with France's extreme right. While she has toned down her anti-immigration focus in a bid to detoxify her image, older voters who were born in the wake of World War II have found it more difficult to forget the the links between the Le Pen name and the National Front's Neo-Nazi past.
It also may not have escaped their notice that her party's new name, National Rally, is almost exactly the same as the major collaborationist party that supported France's Nazi-allied Vichy government.
And while France's preoccupation with terrorism and a rising level of anti-Muslim sentiment may have favored Le Pen with younger voters, Macron's relentless attacks on Muslim "separatism" both in rhetoric and policy have offered socially conservative voters an outlet for an immigrant feeling without being associated with the far right.
France's changing right wing
Essentially, the shape of France's right wing is changing. Macron's brand of centrism includes a right-wing economic program, continuity on Europe, and traditional social values, while Le Pen promises economic redistribution, radical European reform, and a historically taboo immigration policy.
It's no wonder then that Nicolas Sarkozy, France's last conservative president and the erstwhile hero of French seniors, backed the current president on Tuesday. "I will vote for Emmanuel Macron because I think he has the necessary experience as we face a deep international crisis," he wrote in a social media post.
With older voters likely to follow, Le Pen will be spending much of the next two weeks trying to peel back some of Macron's support among the over-60s by promising pension bonuses and increased nursing home places.
But if the first round is anything to go by, the young reformist has successfully carried off a realignment of the French electorate. France's senior citizens have become centrists.