Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has been given the first chance to form a government, after an inconclusive Israeli election last month in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, raising the possibility of an end to his long tenure in power.

A spokesperson for President Isaac Herzog announced the invitation to Eisenkot on Saturday, following consultations with the full spectrum of politicians in order to assess who had the most chance of forming a coalition.

However, Eisenkot, whose bloc lacks a majority of parliamentary seats, does not have an easy path to forming a government. 

"Now is the time to form a national emergency government," Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party, posted on X. "I will do everything to ensure we are worthy." 

However, the 66-year-old faces a difficult challenge because many opposition parties hold sharply conflicting positions on national security, religion and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory.

The electoral maths: Finding 61 members

The electoral maths are both relatively simple and fiendishly complicated. First, the simple numbers: forming a majority in the 120-member Knesset parliament requires 61 seats. 

The problem for Eisenkot is that his four-party opposition bloc only won 48 seats, while Netanyahu's group won 53, so he needs to add some support in order to survive an immediate vote of no confidence. 

The good news for Eisenkot is that parties representing 67 of the elected Knesset members recommended him, as opposed to 46 for Netanyahu – the seven-member United Torah Judaism (UTJ), a traditional Netanyahu ally, endorsed neither candidate. 

The mixed news is that the 19 extra votes came from Arab-Israeli parties, who now have a potentially decisive role in determining who governs Israel, even though Eisenkot and his prospective partners refuse to rely on their support.

So what are Eisenkot's possible paths to power, and can he unseat Netanyahu?

Option 1: A minority government relying on Arab-led parties

Eisenkot could try to form a minority government with his Yashar party's natural allies — former PM Naftali Bennett's center-right Together, the center-left Democrats led by Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman's right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home). 

But this 48-seat coalition will need to be propped up by Israel's two Arab parties — Ra'am (United List) and the Joint List (comprising Hadash, Ta'al and Balad). 

Hadash is an Arab-Jewish party, Ta'al advocates for the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Balad demands equal rights for all its citizens.

They jointly hold 19 seats and have endorsed Eisenkot's attempt to form a government. Their backing would give the broader anti-Netanyahu camp a combined 67 seats in the 120-seat parliament capable of surviving no-confidence motions.

Under this arrangement, the Arab-led parties would not necessarily receive cabinet positions or formally join the coalition. They could instead negotiate policy concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.

Even if Eisenkot reverses his campaign pledge not to have Arab parties in government – and there were protests in Tel Aviv on Saturday night insisting he should do just that – and accepts their support, it would be a hard sell to many Israelis whose attitudes toward Israel's Arab minority have hardened further since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Since the election, Lieberman's Israel Our Home has repeatedly ruled out forming a minority government with Arab parties.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu focused his campaign on delegitimizing support from Arabs, and for now, only Golan's Democrats have come out publicly calling for their inclusion.

"We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes," Golan said after the election.

Both Arab parties endorsed Eisenkot to try to form a government and have said they are ready to work with his broader camp to ensure Netanyahu does not return to power.

It would not be unprecedented for Arab parties to lend a hand. Ra'am in 2021 joined the government of Bennett’s Together party. However, that government collapsed after 18 months, in part over disagreements over the occupied West Bank.

Option 2: Coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties

Eisenkot and his partners could try to strike a deal with Israel's two ultra-Orthodox parties, UTJ and Shas, whose collective 13 seats could hand the change bloc a 61-seat majority. 

However, they have traditionally been partners of Netanyahu's Likud – and while UTJ abstained from endorsing either candidate to Herzog, six-seat Shas backed Netanyahu.

To reach a deal, Eisenkot's bloc and the ultra-orthodox factions would need to find a compromise on military service exemptions traditionally granted to ultra-Orthodox seminary students. Many Israelis fume at what they see as an unfair burden carried by the mainstream who serve.

Eisenkot – a former military man – and his bloc partners, notably Lieberman, have sharply criticized the exemptions. But Lieberman said in a statement on Friday that he was open to a compromise on the issue, telling supporters "you cannot have it all."

Option 3: A unity government with Netanyahu

Eisenkot's Yashar, the center-right Together and the right-wing Israel Our Home could form a unity government with Netanyahu's Likud party, which emerged as the largest single party in parliament following the October 27 vote.

That grouping would secure 67 seats, a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

However, this option appears remote at this point as Eisenkot's partners would have to break their main pledge to voters: unseating Netanyahu. 

It would also mean that Netanyahu would likely have to abandon his natural political allies, the far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

Still, if neither camp is able to form a government at the end of weeks of protracted negotiations, a unity government may emerge as a last option. 

Renewed fighting with Iran could also push the sides together.

How long does Eisenkot have to form a government?

Eisenkot has 28 days to cobble together a coalition to form a government. If he fails to form a new administration within that period, he can seek a 14-day extension.

If he fails after that 42-day period, President Herzog would likely nominate Netanyahu to try.

Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition has fallen from its original 64 seats to 53. But Netanyahu could try to split the opposition by peeling away members of its parties and bringing them over to his side.

He has managed to do this before, including as opposition head in the run-up to the 2022 election, which he won. 

But the coalition he was battling at the time had a far narrower lead and he did not need too many defectors to destabilize his political rivals.

Could there be another election?

If both Eisenkot and Netanyahu fail, parliament can nominate another candidate to try. There is a deadline for the process of around 100 days. If no one succeeds, another election is held.

Herzog said on Wednesday that everything must be done to avoid another election and urged the parties to come with an open mind to the consultations with him.

The country held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to repeated deadlocks.