Trump was right about everything. That was the US president's slogan for a while. He wasn't shy about it either, handing out 'Trump was right' caps to reporters in the Oval Office last year. Back then, President Trump was fresh off an election victory, winning a second term thanks to the 77 million Americans who voted for him. 

But new polling data suggests those caps may be out of fashion and, in many ways, out of facts. 

NBC News conducted the nationwide poll in late September and early October. It shows that 34% of American adults approve of Trump's performance as president. That's the lowest rating of his second term, and 11 percentage points below his highest, achieved in April last year. 

So what's going on? Well, the poll explored a range of issues, but many are linked to a single problem: the pain in people's pockets. 

Just 27% of Americans think Trump is doing a good job when it comes to the cost of living. Maybe that's not surprising: petrol prices have climbed 44% since he took office in January 2025. 

Meanwhile, fuel prices are driving up the cost of other goods. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, year-on-year. Prices have climbed at a faster rate just twice over the last three years: 3.8% in April and 4.2% in May. 

Fueling the crisis

The president also scores poorly on the Iran war, with 29% of Americans approving of his decisions. Some may have a moral objection to the conflict – after all, nearly 8,000 people have died since the United States attacked Iran in late February, with many more Americans having relatives in the armed forces. But there may be another side to the rating. 

The fact is, fuel costs more because oil costs more. But oil costs more because of a conflict which Trump started. Brent crude oil was trading at $72.87 a barrel before the war began. Now, it's above $114, a surge of 56%. 

And that's no coincidence. Iran is next to the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through the strait. The war has made it much more risky to move oil out of the Middle East, so global supply levels have dropped. That's affected the supply-demand balance, creating more competition for the oil that's available. More competition means higher prices and, ultimately, consumers have to pay more at the pump.  

Trump said the war would be over within a few weeks. Eight months later, there's no sign of peace, and Americans are getting regular reminders of his mistakes. Those reminders come whenever they fill up their tanks.  

Artificial intelligence, real inflation 

Americans are also concerned about artificial intelligence, or AI. Trump has opposed calls for more regulation, saying it will stifle innovation and growth in the US tech industry. But many people aren't buying it – just 23% give his AI policy the thumbs up. 

It's not clear why they feel that way. It may be linked to fears that AI could take their jobs. There is also a danger that it will damage communities. Tech firms are aiming to build data centers that can support their AI services, and these facilities consume vast amounts of water and power. 

That's set off alarm bells in towns and cities across the United States. A Politico poll showed that 35% of Americans would 'strongly oppose' plans to build a data center within three miles of their homes. Another 15% would 'oppose' the plans, while 19% were neutral. Just one in five said they would back the idea. 

But again, there is a link to inflation, even if it is a subtle one. Financial services firm JP Morgan says US tech giants are set to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure this year. They're buying massive amounts of computer chips, a splurge which has ramped up the cost of consumer products such as laptops and PCs. 

Figures from July show that prices of products related to computing technology climbed 12% in a single year. That's significant because, broadly speaking, prices were heading in the opposite direction before the AI boom. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Missouri shows that prices fell an average of 6.5% per year between 2015 and 2019. 

MAGA or MAAA?

None of this means Americans check their bank balances every time the president makes an announcement. But the polling data does raise the question: if prices keep climbing, will inflation affect the way people see other Trump policies? 

If they do, the president could face even more pressure. He promised to 'Make America Great Again', a line that got him into the White House, twice. But as his ratings fall, he may want to consider a new slogan: Make America Affordable Again.