Israel election: Netanyahu ahead but loses majority, Arab parties soar

Israel's pivotal general election remains in the balance with more than two-thirds of the votes counted. The bloc based around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead of the opposition grouping, but still short of a majority.

Voters turned out in the highest numbers in decades to give their verdict on Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has pushed the country sharply to the right and unleashed a wave of wars in response to Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack.

Following the vote, both Netanyahu and his main rival Gadi Eisenkot – a former military chief and political novice – vowed to form a government despite neither being projected to win a majority.

With around 77% of votes tallied by 12:27 p.m. local time Wednesday, Israeli media forecast Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties winning 54 seats in the 120-seat parliament, with Eisenkot's Change bloc predicted to win 49. 

The strongest gains, with a predicted 19-seat total, went to Arab Israeli parties whose voters turned out in soaring numbers against Netanyahu, who has relentlessly warned that the minority would dilute the Jewish nationalist direction in which he has taken Israel.

The partial results suggest that Eisenkot's bloc would have enough seats for a majority if it entered into a coalition agreement with the Arab parties, something most of its members expressed reluctance to do on the campaign trail. 

But Yair Golan, the head of Israel's main left-wing party, which is part of Eisenkot's camp, called for precisely that on Wednesday. 

"We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes," he said on X. "We have a responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Israel's Arab citizens."

Eisenkot had said during the campaign he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers, echoing the position of Netanyahu, who has suggested a government relying on Arab votes would lack legitimacy.

Arab lawmakers could also give Eisenkot support in parliamentary votes on an ad hoc basis, enabling him to maintain a minority government without joining a coalition. 

Full results are expected by Thursday evening or Friday morning. A lack of clear majority for either camp could mean weeks spent trying to cobble together coalitions, with possible new elections on the horizon if negotiations fail.

A stalemate could in the immediate term benefit Netanyahu, who would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot address supporters 

Netanyahu, addressing his Likud party's faithful after 3 a.m. (0100 GMT) at the party's election headquarters in Jerusalem, called for the formation of "a strong, right-wing national government".

He also highlighted Israel's military successes and raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside his ally, US President Donald Trump.

"Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission," he said.

Eisenkot acknowledged that Netanyahu was still in office as a caretaker, but said the prime minister had lost public support and urged him to retire from politics. 

"Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs," Eisenkot said. "I call on the heads of the security establishment and the civil service: Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust.

"Remember that you serve only the state and the interests of Israel's citizens. Stand firm in the face of any attempt to challenge you. You have my unequivocal backing. Netanyahu, do not dare use Israel's security for your political needs."

Eisenkot shares many of Netanyahu's views on security and has backed the Gaza offensive that has reduced the territory to rubble. But he has vowed to create a more inclusive atmosphere inside Israel, repair its international standing and rein in violent West Bank settlers.

"The public has voted for change," he said. "A worthy leader would accept the people's vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from political life today."

First election since October 7 attacks

The election was the first held in Israel since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, in which fighters killed 1,200 people and carried off 251 hostages. Since then, Israel has attacked Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The war in Gaza, which flattened the territory and killed 74,000 Palestinians, has left Israel increasingly isolated on the world stage, with a decisive shift in global public opinion against it, including in its closest ally the United States.

Netanyahu himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague on war crimes charges he calls absurd, and faces corruption charges in Israel that he dismisses as an establishment plot.

His continued support from most Israeli Jews was a clear sign of the decisive shift in Israeli politics that he has presided over as the dominant political figure of the era.

His brand of unapologetic Jewish nationalism, support for settlement on occupied Palestinian land and contempt for all foreign criticism is now firmly entrenched as the Israeli mainstream.

The center-left that dominated Israel for the first half of its history and had led negotiations to exchange land for peace with Arab neighbors has been reduced to a small fringe.

Nearly all Jewish parties now share Netanyahu's rejection of any eventual independent state for Palestinians, the basis of internationally endorsed peace talks since the 1990s, when he first came to power as Israel's youngest-ever leader.

After a spell in the wilderness as a right-wing maverick, he returned to power in 2009 and has remained ever since, apart from a period of 18 months following four inconclusive elections in two years.

Decisive turning point? 

Both sides saw Tuesday's election as a decisive turning point for the nation, driving turnout to 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades and around 7 percentage points higher than in 2022.

Turnout was particularly high among Israelis of Palestinian descent, who make up more than a fifth of the population but whose representatives have historically been excluded from the cabinet. Many were motivated by what they see as open racism from Netanyahu's cabinet, which includes a party leader convicted of inciting racial hatred against Arabs.

On polling day, a social media post from Netanyahu warned "If we don't wake up now, we'll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi," referring to two leading Palestinian Arab politicians in Israel.

Tibi, a candidate from an Arab party, said strong turnout among Israel's Arab minority would "pave the way for an alternative government and change the grave reality".

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Arab Balad party, wrote on X that long lines outside polling stations should bring "pride and joy to anyone who believed in democracy".

"We are receiving all these inciting messages from the petty racists, Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu, and their partners. What are they afraid of? This is actually an excellent sight, it is good for democracy."

One of the leaders of Joint List, a far-left alliance of several Arab parties, called on Wednesday for a "genuine Jewish-Arab partnership" to remove Netanyahu.

"Anyone who wants to offer a substantive and genuine alternative to Netanyahu's blood-soaked government will have to talk to us to secure the path to the change that the public in Israel longs for," Yousef Jabareen told Israeli media.