'He's going to be overthrown' – Israeli ex-PM predicts Netanyahu loss

Tuesday's election in Israel sees Benjamin Netanyahu fighting for his political life. 

It's the first legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 and the ensuing war in Gaza, which has since expanded into wider regional conflicts.

It will bring the curtain down on the country's 37th government, which Netanyahu has led as prime minister since 2022 – his third such stint, totaling more than 19 years in power. And former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert thinks Tuesday's election will bring an end to Netanyahu's time in charge. 

"Based on the polls, the bloc of Netanyahu will have a maximum of 50 members of the Knesset," he told CGTN. "This is short by a considerable number to be able to form a government."

With 120 seats in the Knesset, it takes 61 elected members to form a majority. As no single party has ever won an Israeli election outright, the president asks a single politician – usually the leader of the party with the most seats – to attempt to form a coalition. 

That's the process Olmert successfully went through in forming a government after the 2006 election, and this time he thinks the electoral maths will be easier for Netanyahu's main challenger, the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

"Netanyahu will not have more than the votes of the bloc that support him, which is 50 to 51, at best 52," he said. "Even if it would be 53, he will be short. So Eisenkot certainly has better chances to form a coalition."

Arab-Israeli participation

Olmert thinks that to achieve a workable majority, Eisenkot – who founded a new party, Yashar, in September 2025 – might seek support from an Arab-Israeli party. 

"This is quite likely that it may happen, even though they now deny it, or say that it will never happen," he said. "But we know something about politics and things may change an hour after the election. And I think that there is a good chance that after the election, if the votes of the Arab parties will be needed, there is a likelihood that it will actually happen."

Olmert expects a significantly higher turn-out from Arab-Israeli voters, who have previously not voted in great numbers, to be a significant factor in this election. 

"There is a growing understanding amongst the Israeli Arabs that refraining from higher participation in formal elections didn't bring any good news for them," he said. 

"If they add 10% participation to what they had in the past, it will be very significant – it will definitely help build up the kind of bloc against Netanyahu which is so needed."

Increasing polarization

Analysts have also noted that a lot of younger, first-time voters are likely to vote for right-wing parties led by outspoken ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. However, Olmert was quick to play this down as a rising trend. 

"Young ones always vote more in favor of right-wing parties," he said. "But the total number of votes for the two extreme-right factions – Ben-Gvir and Smotrich together – is more or less the same as they had in the last elections."

Even so, Olmert – who during his premiership engaged in several rounds of peace talks with Palestinian groups – thinks the current government's actions have been engineered to increase division in Israeli society. 

"The policy of Netanyahu was calculated: polarization, incitement, and bringing the differences within Israel to the extreme, building up a policy of panic and hysteria and fear," he said. 

"It definitely adds a few votes to Netanyahu, but it appears that it's not sufficient to bring him the kind of majority that he needs in order to continue. And fortunately enough, I think he's going to be overthrown."

Netanyahu leaving office could expedite the legal trial – ongoing since May 2020 – against him on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in connection with three separate cases. Netanyahu, the first serving Israeli prime minister to stand trial, denies the charges. 

"I hope he will have more time to attend the court," Olmert says. "Hopefully this process will be rapidly concluded and the decision of the court will be given in a relatively shorter time."

What next if Netanyahu leaves office? 

While Olmert doesn't expect the end of Netanyahu's reign would bring about instant regional peace, he does think it might bring changes in Gaza. 

"We have to build up realistic expectations about the changes which will take place," he warns. "Unfortunately, I don't believe that there will be a dramatic turnaround of the government policy overall towards the fundamental issues between us and the Palestinians. But definitely, there will be a change towards Gaza. 

"There is a likelihood that the 20-point plan of President Trump will be implemented," he explains. "I think that the parties of this bloc all believe that Egypt has to lead the establishment of a security force that will take active and effective control over the military situation inside Gaza.

"This will allow the gradual implementation of the 20 points by pulling out Israeli forces back into the international line, and by building up an administration that will govern Gaza and will start to rebuild Gaza, which is something that is acutely needed for the well-being of two million people living there." 

Olmert also doubts the killing of two Israeli soldiers near Hebron on Friday would help Netanyahu's chances. 

"This is not going to change the attitude of the voters. We all know that there is terror in the West Bank," he said. "Unfortunately, there is also a lot of terror perpetrated by Jews in the West Bank, and this is something that we are all conscious about, that needs to be taken care of by the government. 

"While we all think that the fighting against Palestinian terror is imperative, I'm not certain that the government is prepared to take the necessary measures in order to stop Jewish terror in the West Bank."