What now for Manchester City, guilty of 100+ Premier League charges?

From Real Madrid to Rochdale? That's the future facing Manchester City as one of Europe's leading football clubs ponders the possibility of punitive relegation. 

City, Premier League champions six times in the last nine seasons and leading the division again, were on the wrong end of a damning verdict which found them guilty of widespread financial fraud across a nine-year period between 2009 and 2018.

A Premier League statement on Tuesday confirmed what had leaked out in the media a few days earlier, that City had been found guilty by an independent commission on all but one of the charges they faced.

City will appeal the decision, but a hefty points penalty leading to relegation is the most likely outcome. There is also speculation City could be stripped of some of the many trophies they have won over the past 15 years – and they could even find themselves outcast to English football's fourth division.

That said, a case that began almost eight years ago – when German outlet Der Spiegel published leaked documents from City executives in November 2018 – could still take a long time to reach a conclusion.

Here we look at what might happen – eventually…

Points deductions 

The same independent commission that found City guilty will now have to agree upon a sanction. According to Premier League rules, that could be a fine, a points deduction, or even expulsion from the division. And there are precedents.

In the 2023/24 season, Everton and Nottingham Forest were handed points deductions for breaking financial sustainability rules, triggered by complaints from other clubs. 

In November 2023 Everton were docked 10 points, reduced to six points on appeal, for a single breach of the rules. However, the next April, Everton were docked another two points for a separate transgression – and by that time, Nottingham Forest had also received a four-point deduction for a single breach. 

Both Everton and Forest managed to stay in the Premier League that season, although partly due to a historically low points accrual by the three relegated teams – Forest's adjusted 32-point haul would almost always have brought relegation. 

However, a points deduction for Manchester City would be unrecoverable if applied on a similar scale. Four points per transgression would add up to a 456-point deduction if all 114 charges are upheld; even winning all 38 games in a Premier League season would only total, ironically enough, 114 points. 

City set a Premier League record in 2017/18 by amassing 100 points, but in the last two seasons they have collected 71 and then 78 points. With something like 35-40 points usually needed to avoid relegation, any deduction above 0.5 points per breach – a much lower scale of punishment to the Everton and Forest precedent – would almost certainly doom City to relegation. 

Expulsion from the Premier League – to the fourth division?

It's also entirely possible, given the number and nature of the offences, that the commission will go for a stronger punishment and simply expel Manchester City from the Premier League. 

That would require a vote in favor by at least 15 of the Premier League's clubs – and if the motion is carried, it could lead to City dropping by more than one division.

If City are relegated by a points deduction, they would fall into the second English tier, the EFL Championship. However, if they are expelled, they would have to apply for membership to the three-division EFL. 

The 72 EFL clubs would conduct a simple majority vote on whether to admit City. Championship clubs, many of them running at a significant loss in the attempt to reach the Premier League, might not welcome the addition of a huge rival – although lower-division clubs might be glad of the increased attention and money City would bring. 

Furthermore, the current EFL rulebook suggests that "under FA Rules, The League [EFL] could be asked to accommodate any former Premier League Club(s) in League Two." That's the fourth tier, where average attendances are around 6,000 and City's rivals would change from Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal to Salford City, Rochdale and Accrington Stanley. 

If City were to be expelled from the Premier League, they could also be left in limbo for months waiting for the next season to start. Under a points deduction, City could fulfil their fixtures for the rest of the season – whether that's this season, or potentially next if the appeals drag on. 

However, if the decision is to expel the club from the Premier League, they would cancel all remaining fixtures for the season. The last time anything like that happened was in March 1962, when Accrington Stanley resigned from the league, facing bankruptcy. Their results were expunged from the records.

While the current Premier League rules do not explicitly say what would happen in such an occurrence, expunging the results would mean any teams who had beaten Manchester City before an expulsion would lose those points. 

The alternatives – for some teams to have played more games than others, or for all remaining games to be decreed 'walkover' wins for City's scheduled opponents – seem unlikely to be accepted by the clubs. 

Are there any precedents for enforced relegations?

Some big footballing names have previously been relegated for off-field matters. 

In summer 2006, Juventus – Italy's most successful club – was found guilty by a sporting tribunal of corruption, systematically pressuring administrators and refereeing designators. The club was stripped of two league titles and relegated to Italy's second tier with a nine-point deduction, although it easily gained promotion after a single season. 

In 2012, Rangers – Scottish champions 54 times in the 114 seasons before that point – entered administration. The club's assets were transferred to a new company but the Scottish Premier League clubs voted not to let the new company stay in the top division – and the Scottish Football League clubs voted to place the new Rangers in the country's fourth and lowest professional division. They returned to the top flight after three promotions in four years.

But perhaps a closer comparison came in 1919, when Leeds City became the first club to be expelled from the English league – and forcibly disbanded mid-season – after breaching maximum wage regulations by making illegal payments. 

An official inquiry demanded to see the club's financial records but directors refused and withheld them. Eight games into the 1919-1920 season, the club was expelled and permanently dissolved, with players auctioned off to other teams and five officials receiving lifetime bans. 

What is the appeals process?

Manchester City quickly confirmed they will appeal the ruling, which they must do by Friday (October 2). Under Premier League rules, that appeal would be heard by a new, three-person commission. 

Given the original decision was only reached after a four-year investigation and a 12-week hearing – which concluded in December 2024 – it's not surprising many fans are expecting the story to drag on for a while yet. 

However, things may continue to move forward.  The Premier League said that City's sanction "will be addressed separately in a further hearing with the independent commission". 

League rules state that the hearing must remain private and confidential, but if the sanctions are decided before the appeal finishes, the Premier League will have to decide whether to release the decision – or risk news emerging unofficially, as it did last week well before the official statement. 

If the sanction is applied before the appeal is heard, City could face a relegation which could then be overturned – causing logistical chaos in the Premier League and Football league. But if the punishment is delayed until after the appeal, the results of matches against City could cost other clubs their place in the league or European qualification.

Furthermore, even after the Premier League process is complete, City could take the league to the High Court and argue that the process has not been fair and impartial. 

What City cannot do in this case is appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) – as they successfully did in 2020 to overturn a two-year ban from European club competitions. That sanction had been levied when European football's governing body UEFA said City had been "disguising equity funds as sponsorship contributions".