Voters in another German state are set to head to the polls on Sunday, only weeks after the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first-ever state election in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6. 

All eyes - and namely, the eyes of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz - will be on Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania this weekend, after national opinion polls put the AfD at between 27% and 29%, compared with 18% to 20% for Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU).

It's set to be a crucial test of both German mainstream political attitudes and Merz's own position as chancellor - which is looking increasingly tenuous. 

The result in Saxony-Anhalt sent shock waves through German politics and raised further questions about the possibility of the far-right party making gains at the next federal election, due in 2029. 

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, however, the Social Democrats (SPD) are hoping that the popularity of state premier Manuela Schwesig can help prevent an AfD victory from translating into control of the state government.

Schwesig has an approval rating above 60% and leads a coalition with the Left Party. A recent INSA poll put the AfD at 37%, narrowly ahead of the SPD on 35%. The Left Party was on 10%, the Greens on 5% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 3%. Merz’s CDU stood at just 7%.

But if those figures are reflected in Sunday's result, the SPD could potentially form a coalition with the Left Party and Greens, although the Greens are exactly on the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.

Germany's cordon sanitaire

The strategy of Germany's mainstream political parties has become increasingly clear - unite in a so-called cordon sanitaire to keep the AfD out. But there's lingering doubts over how effective this strategy actually is. 

Ed Turner, an expert in German politics from the Aston Center for Europe, notes that "in doing so, they [the mainstream political parties] only appear to make the AfD stronger".

"There are parties in government that don't really get along, and find it very hard to agree on a common agenda. And it looks like things aren't working and the voters get frustrated by it", he added - in an exclusive interview with CGTN Europe. 

But other experts rate the SPD's chances in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania more favourably.

“It is, first and foremost, the Schwesig brand,” said Wolfgang Muno, a professor of political science at Rostock University. He described Schwesig as “by far the best-known politician in the state” and said she had successfully distanced herself from Merz's federal government, where the SPD is the junior coalition partner.

That distinction could be important as Merz's approval ratings have fallen sharply during his first year in office. His support has dropped as promised reforms have yet to produce clear results, economic uncertainty has increased and voters have expressed growing dissatisfaction with the federal government.

The CDU is already on course for what could be its worst result in the state and faces the humiliating possibility of failing to cross the 5% threshold altogether.

German media have increasingly speculated about Merz's political future, with another strong AfD performance in eastern Germany potentially increasing pressure within his conservative camp. Senior CDU figures have continued to support him, however, arguing that replacing the chancellor would not resolve the economic problems facing the country.

Schwesig, who is regarded as a potential future SPD leader, has been a vocal critic of Merz. She has called for greater government action to address high fuel prices and accused the chancellor of failing to connect with voters struggling with rising living costs.

Reflecting broader trends

The AfD's strength in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reflects broader trends in eastern Germany, where the party has gained support by focusing on immigration, economic concerns and dissatisfaction with established political parties.

The state has a relatively low proportion of immigrants but faces shortages of qualified workers, while its health and elderly-care systems rely heavily on foreign doctors, nurses and carers. But regional realities tend not to matter for certain voters, as immigration remains an emotive issue across the entire continent. 

Political commentator Matthew Karnitschnig notes that "a similar trend [is visible] elsewhere in Europe. If you look in France, with their Assemblement National there, under Marine Le Pen, or in Italy to Georgia Meloni – the immigration issue has been central to the success of all of these parties.  

“And it can go very quickly when you see events such as what we saw in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta some weeks ago. This can really galvanize an electorate and put this question of migration back on the front burner", he added. 

The AfD has also campaigned on restoring access to cheaper Russian energy and rebuilding ties with Moscow, positions that have found support among some voters in the formerly communist areas of eastern Germany.

As is so often the case across Europe, the surging right-wing party finds itself popular at the polls, excluded in parliament – and right at the heart of the continent's continuing political uncertainty.