"Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!" 

So said Donald Trump via his Truth Social channel on Monday – but the events of the following 24 hours somewhat undermined the US President's confidence. 

First, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while welcoming the possibility of de-escalation, denied any agreement existing. 

Then analysts began to question Trump's assertion that it was the Ukraine-Russia conflict, rather than the ongoing Middle East military action, that was raising fuel prices to record highs. 

Finally, as has so often been the case, there were overnight strikes on energy targets – from both sides. 

Overnight strikes 

Early on Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy announced Ukraine had hit a Russian oil refinery in Syzran in Russia's Samara region on the Volga River, along with drone production facilities in the Taganrog and Oryol regions.

The Samara governor said an industrial facility was hit there without identifying it. The Taganrog governor said a warehouse of e-commerce firm Ozon was struck there.

"Russia continues to attack our energy sector, regular logistics and critical infrastructure. And our responses to them for this are tangible," Zelenskyy said on the Telegram app.

In the other direction, Russia launched 200 drones at Ukraine's capital and other cities in overnight attacks, killing two people. In addition to petrol stations in Kyiv it struck energy and port infrastructure in other regions, Ukrainian officials said.

Targeting energy infrastructure

In his Monday night video address, Zelenskyy had said Kyiv would support a moratorium on targeting energy infrastructure only if Washington could ensure Moscow was genuinely ready to end its military action.

"If this can become the first de-escalatory step, a step towards ending Russian strikes against our critical infrastructure and our strikes in response, Ukraine is ready to support de-escalation," Zelenskyy said.

"So far, no one has seen any genuine willingness on Russia's part to bring the war to an end. But if our American partners can secure Russia's genuine readiness to end the war aimed at destroying lives, and to do so honestly and on a long-term basis, Ukraine will take its own de-escalatory steps."

Russia said on Tuesday it welcomed the moratorium proposal, while adding that "illegal" sanctions on Russian energy supplies should be lifted.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Trump's suggestion was a "very good idea", but it would take more than that to bring down global fuel prices.

"It is necessary to ensure safe commercial shipping and navigation here, including for oil tankers. The Kyiv regime has so far shown no inclination to guarantee such security," Peskov said.

"And the second thing that needs to be done is, of course, to lift sanctions (against Russia) and these unlawful restrictions on energy supplies. Only then will the world be adequately supplied with these petroleum products, global markets will stabilize, and prices will move lower."

Russia has been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missiles and drones persistently since 2022, and began targeting petrol stations in Kyiv and other cities in recent weeks.

Kyiv has stepped up long-range attacks on Russia this year, including a campaign targeting oil refineries that has caused fuel shortages. In the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was successfully hit on average every three days, according to the International Energy Agency.

These strikes have had a profound economic impact on Russia, the world's third-largest refiner after China and the US. Refinery crude processing runs fell to 8.7 million bpd in June, down 3.8 million bpd, or 30%, from a year earlier, hitting the lowest level since May 2004, according to the IEA. 

US diesel price hits new record high

Average diesel prices in the United States struck a record high of just under $6.27 a gallon Tuesday, the motorists' association AAA said, adding to pressure on Trump ahead of midterm congressional elections.

The price of the fuel – used largely in road hauling, agriculture and construction – hit $6.2694, the association said. It had jumped above $6 a gallon for the first time on Friday.

It had reached a record $5.8159 a gallon in June 2022, a few months after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but by the time of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the price was down to $3.7577 a gallon. 

"A halt to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries would help the diesel balance, but the shortage of refined products from the Middle East matters far more," Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in a client note Tuesday. 

"Diesel and gasoil prices and cracks only really surged after the start of the war with Iran," Rasmussen added, referring to "crack spreads" – the price difference between crude oil and refined products. 

Ceasefires elusive, rebuilding difficult 

Previous attempts by the US administration to broker a ceasefire on energy infrastructure have failed. In March 2025, Trump brokered a mutual suspension of strikes on energy facilities. Both sides accused the other of violating the arrangement almost immediately, and the deal never truly materialized.

But even if attacks on Russian refineries do cease, this is unlikely to materially improve the country's diesel production and export outlook in the coming months.

Many Russian facilities have been struck multiple times, including Gazpromneft's Moscow refinery and Rosneft's Ryazan refinery, so the accumulated damage is likely to be extensive.

Sourcing replacement equipment, or even temporary repair solutions, will be challenging for Russian refiners as Western sanctions continue to restrict access to specialized technology and components. Russian operators will also find themselves competing for limited engineering resources and equipment given the extensive damage to facilities across the Middle East.

Even if Russia succeeds in sourcing the necessary parts, repairs are likely to take months. That means any meaningful recovery in Russian fuel exports, and any resulting relief for global diesel markets, is unlikely before next year under even the most optimistic scenario.

In other words, even if Trump's truce succeeds in stopping further strikes, it cannot quickly undo the damage that has already been done.