Sweden faces political uncertainty after an election thriller gave the left-wing opposition a razor-thin lead with votes still left to count.

With 94.8% of votes counted for the 349-seat Riksdag parliament as of 1500GMT Monday, the left-wing grouping was projected to win 176 seats against the 173 for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing alliance. 

However, with a gap of only 28,600 votes between the blocs and more than 5% of ballots still to be counted – including a sizable block of 200,000 votes not expected until Wednesday – the Swedish public broadcaster SVT would only pronounce itself 90% certain of an opposition victory.

Even when the numbers are in, there will be a period of tense negotiations between potential coalition members. Parliament cannot vote on a new prime minister until September 29 at the earliest. After the 2022 election, it took 37 days to form a government; in 2018, it took 134 days.

Far-right on the retreat 

Perhaps the biggest question ahead of Sunday's election was how well the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) would perform. Since winning its first seats in 2010, the anti-immigration party had consistently grown by 2022 to 20.5% of votes and 73 seats, becoming the second-largest party in parliament. 

Furthermore, Kristersson – leader of the center-right Moderates, whose previous coalition excluded SD but relied on its parliamentary support – had said that if victorious he would give SD politicians key ministerial positions, ending Sweden's historical governmental cordon sanitaire against the far right. 

However, for the first general election since its inception in 1988, SD looks to have gathered fewer votes, a smaller share and fewer seats – following on from a small downturn in the 2024 European elections. 

SD is projected to drop from 73 seats in the 2022 election to 62 this time, dropping to third behind Kristersson's Moderates, while its vote share is set to drop from 20.6% to 17.6%. 

It's a disappointing result for Jimmie Akesson's party. Having tried hard to shake itself of its roots in white supremacy and the neo-Nazi fringe, SD was hoping this election would mark its acceptance into the political mainstream – and direct governmental involvement. 

The party says it has expelled extremists and apologized for its past – but as SD's Richard Jomshof said on election night, "there is a group of voters that may like many of our policies but emotionally have a hard time accepting us."

Mainstream migration hard-lining  

While the far-right SD's results have slid back, observers attributed the drop to the fact that strict policies on migration and crime had now become part of mainstream politics in what has traditionally been a fairly liberal nation.

"Migration issues were strongest in 2015-2016 and now many parties are in favor of a restrictive policy," said Annika Freden, associate professor in political science at Lund University.

While a center-left government may take a softer line, it is unlikely to return to the generous, open-door policies of past decades, analysts say, due to voters' unease over the levels of immigration and crime.

"I believe the broader shift towards a stricter Swedish migration policy is, for the most part, here to stay," said Niklas Bohlin, political scientist at the Mid-Sweden University.

On immigration, Magdalena Andersson's left-wing Social Democrats (SAP) now support a significantly more restrictive approach than the party championed during the refugee crises of the 2010s.

Kristersson's government abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened welfare and stepped up expulsions, bringing asylum numbers to a 40-year low.

Divisions on the left 

Like Kristersson, Andersson – the previous prime minister – has said she wants to explore coalition options to secure power, but would have to make major concessions to obtain a working majority.

Although the SAP's expected 100 seats would be the biggest of any single party, that's also down on the 2022 election, and its projected vote share of 28.1% is set to be its lowest since before World War I. 

While the top three parties (SAP, Moderates and SD) are all set to lose vote share, while the various smaller parties – Left, Center, Christian Democrats, Green and Liberals – look to all have enjoyed an uptick in votes. 

That could embolden the parties with whom Andersson and Kristersson will be negotiating to form a workable coalition – and Andersson's job is complicated by existing enmities on the left of the spectrum.

The Center party, set for 25 seats, has said it would refuse to support any government including the Left party – while the Left (set for 29) has refused to support any government of which it is not a member.

To gather the 175 members needed to secure a parliamentary majority, Andersson would need to woo both Center and Left, along with the 22-seat Greens. 

Andersson has promised voters more spending on welfare, a fairer tax system and a focus on social cohesion. But while the Greens and Left parties want the rich to contribute more, the Center Party is against a billionaires' tax.

Furthermore, Andersson's Social Democrats want to maintain Sweden's tough line on immigration, while the Left and Greens want to ease rules.

Meanwhile, Kristersson may also target the Center party. His Moderates are set for 70 seats, with previous coalition partners Christian Democrats on 22 and Liberals on 19; adding the 62 SD seats would take the right-wing group to 173.

Kristersson, who headed a minority government propped up by SD votes in parliament, has floated the idea of including the Center in a rightist coalition – but it remains to be seen whether the Center politicians would accept alignment with the far-right SD. 

"I will therefore, even if tonight's result stands, examine whether there are any possibilities within this non-socialist parliamentary majority to find some workable government constellation," Kristersson told his supporters on election night.

Political red lines

Given the political differences and electoral mathematics, it could be a long process of delicate negotiations – or it could simply be a series of doors slamming shut. 

"One or several parties may have to abandon their 'red lines'," said SVT's political analyst Mats Knutson. 

However, fellow expert Freden said Kristersson would get short shrift from the Center. 

"Kristersson reaching out to the Center is expected, but the Center is fundamentally opposed to entering into an alliance with the far right so nothing will come of it," she said.

While Knutson warned of a "stalemate" that "could end in a snap election," Freden said parties would do everything in their power to avoid a new vote.

The negotiations on the left will be about "how much they can get through and will determine if and when the red lines are relaxed".

"In Sweden we have a culture of negotiation, and there is a strong reluctance to call a snap election."

But as parliament speaker Andreas Norlen said, in something of an understatement: "It could very well be a complicated process to form a government."