Sweden's political parties are in the final stretch of a close election race that could see either the center-left regain power – or the far right enter government for the first time.

Opinion polls ahead of Sunday's parliamentary election placed the center-left opposition just ahead of the ruling right-wing bloc, indicating that voters may reject the government's alliance with the far-right.

Across Europe, far-right parties have been on the rise, with Alternative for Germany, which opposes immigration and backs closer ties with Russia, winning a state election and Marine Le Pen leading polls for next year's presidential vote in France.

But for months, opinion polls in Sweden have shown the left-wing bloc holding a strong lead, although this has narrowed considerably in the final days of the campaign.

If that result was matched on Sunday, it would mean a return to power for Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson, who became Sweden's first female prime minister in 2021. 

Andersson's party also won the most seats in the 2022 election, but were well short of a majority and were replaced by a right-wing bloc led by Ulf Kristersson of the center-right Moderates.

A September 2-10 survey published on Friday showed Sweden's four left-leaning parties – the Social Democrats, Greens, Center and Left – had a combined 50.8% backing, estimated to give them 180 seats.

Meanwhile, combined votes for the coalition government – comprising Kristersson's Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, with support from the far-right Sweden Democrats – stood at 47.6%, or 169 seats.

Kristersson says that if his bloc wins, the Sweden Democrats, which has apologized for its past links with neo-Nazism, would join the government for the first time.

Who are the Sweden Democrats?

Long viewed as political pariahs, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats caused shock in the 2022 election when they overtook Kristersson's Moderates to become Sweden's second-biggest party, with 20.5% of the vote. 

Kristersson broke the long-standing cordon sanitaire by making an unprecedented deal with the extreme-right party so his minority coalition could form a government.

He gave the Sweden Democrats significant influence over government policy – in particular on crime and immigration – in exchange for the far-right's support in parliament. 

Kristersson has now gone further, promising the Sweden Democrats cabinet posts if he is re-elected, encouraging the far-right leader Jimmie Akesson to demand no fewer than 12 to 14 portfolios.

Immigration and welfare 

Kristersson's government has shifted away from the liberalism for which Sweden was once known, introducing some of Europe's toughest policies on immigration.

"The most important thing is that the right wing wins, to continue what they have started," pensioner Kurt Flodin, 79.

In particular, he wanted Kristersson to continue efforts to curb organized crime that has plagued the country for years, he said in an upmarket neighborhood of Stockholm. The premier made tackling crime one of his top priorities during his four-year term. 

For their part, the center-left Social Democrats – which governed for the better part of the 20th century and remains Sweden's biggest party – have pledged higher public spending to help struggling households pay their bills and bolster the welfare state.

These issues matter to Jenny Larsson, a theater worker who celebrates her 54th birthday on election day.

She said she was unhappy with politicians "blaming immigration for things that are not caused by immigration" and said she feared far-right politicians entering government.

Splintered left

While the four opposition parties hold a slim lead, they are splintered ideologically and thorny negotiations would be needed to form a government even if they hold a majority.

Although any center-left coalition would presumably be led by the Social Democrats, the Center Party and the Left Party have each ruled out taking part if the other is in.

The parties also differ on key policies, from a tax on billionaires to whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors. This may in turn lead to lengthy negotiations and the formation of a minority government.

Both the left and right blocs support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, as well as military rearmament at home and relief for households hit by the rising cost of living.

But while the campaign focused on a range of issues including Sweden's welfare state, immigration and crime, there was no single dominant issue, experts said.

"Nothing has really stuck, it's been sort of unsatisfactory in that sense," said Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor at Sodertorn University.

"It would be somewhat sensational if the governing parties were to make up the gap... So I probably don't think it's going to happen, but you never know," he added.