Trump makes another Iran war prediction as Hormuz traffic dries up

HEADLINES

• Donald Trump has made his latest prediction of when the Iran war will end. READ MORE BELOW

• Iran and US launch biggest wave of attacks on shipping. READ MORE BELOW

• Brent crude prices hover above $100 a barrel 

• Handful of ships transit the Strait of Hormuz. READ MORE BELOW

• Fighting between Saudi Arabia and Houthis in Yemen escalates. READ MORE BELOW

War ends straight after midterms, claims Trump

US President Donald Trump has made his latest prediction of when the country's war with Iran will end. 

Trailing in the polls ahead of November's midterm election, Trump claimed the six-month-old war will end directly after the vote.

He claimed Iran was trying to influence the elections, saying: "I think war is going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election." 

In June, CNN reported that Trump had made claims of an imminent end to the war at least 38 times.

The war and subsequent increase in fuel prices have helped drive Trump's popularity to record lows. 

The Wall Street Journal reported later that top White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have privately warned Trump that the conflict could extend through the remainder of his presidency, which ends in January 2029. 

Trump's latest prediction came after the two sides launched their biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the start of the war.

Tensions in the region were high, with Saudi civil defence authorities on Thursday issuing emergency alerts in the southwest city of Khamis Mushait for the fourth time in 24 hours, as clashes flared with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis.

Brent crude prices hovered above $100 a barrel as supply routes through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remained heavily disrupted.

Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat strikes that have signalled scant chance of an imminent end to hostilities.

Trump said the US may hit Iran's Pickaxe ​Mountain, a heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes near Iran's damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility.

Handful of ships transit Strait of Hormuz

In recent weeks Washington has cited increasing success guiding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of oil supplies before the war. 

But a resumption of fighting this month appears to have set back any such gradual reopening. Just seven vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, half the 10-day average, preliminary ship-tracking data showed on Thursday.

Out of these seven, four vessels exited and three entered, according to the data.

Some vessels could be sailing through the waterway with their transponders turned off and these are not considered in the counts.

Of the exits, one was a very large crude carrier - Finland Prosperity - carrying nearly 2 million barrels of crude.

No tankers carrying liquefied natural gas exited the strait.

Houthis gain leverage

Yemen's Houthis edged closer on Thursday to gaining leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most important routes for commodity vessels, four Yemeni government military sources said, as fighting with Saudi-backed forces tilts towards a resumption of full-scale war.

The Houthis were nearing complete control of coastal cities such as the historic port of Mocha and Dhubab that sit directly along the strait, as they push to take over the whole Yemeni Red Sea coast, the sources said.

In recent days there has been an escalation in fighting between Saudi Arabia's Yemen allies in the internationally backed government and the Houthis, a second theatre of war in the Iran conflict that threatens global energy supplies. A UN-brokered truce in 2022 largely halted years of war but remains fragile.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern outlet and one of the world's most important routes for crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

Blocking the narrow passage would isolate Gulf oil-producing countries such as energy superpower Saudi Arabia from their main shipping routes after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the primary maritime energy artery between Asia and Europe.

The Houthis said on Wednesday that Saudi strikes hit the Yemeni provinces of Jawaf, Marib and Saada, bordering the kingdom, as well as the provinces of Taiz in the south and al-Hodeidah along the Red Sea coast, a Houthi stronghold used as a base for their broader campaign of attacks on shipping in the waterway. Saudi Arabia did not confirm the strikes.