Vertical escalation: Why the Russia-Ukraine air war is intensifying

In recent weeks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seen a significant escalation in intensity, marking a distinct shift in military tactics. 

Whereas previous bulletins may have led on one side or other claiming territorial advances on the ground, the newest stories all seem to concern aerial attacks – often by drone. 

Professor Stefan Wolff tells CGTN that this aerial intensification is a direct result of the current stalemate on the ground.

"I think it happens right now because the ground war really is frozen," says Wolff, a Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham's Department of Political Science and International Studies. 

"What both sides are doing is that they are escalating vertically – they're focusing on the range and intensity of their attacks rather than trying to capture more territory. And this in many ways makes sense because the front line really has barely moved over the last couple of months."

Wolff notes that this lack of territorial movement has driven both nations to rely on intensified air campaigns. He points out that Russia launched over 450 missiles at Ukraine last month – nearly half of which were ballistic – while Ukraine has countered with deep strikes, including a recent operation involving approximately 600 drones targeting Moscow.

As Ukraine shifts from a primarily defensive strategy to one that reaches deeper into Russian territory, questions arise regarding whether this represents newfound confidence, improved resources, or an act of desperation. According to Wolff, the reality is multifaceted.

"I think it's a little bit of a mix of all three of these issues here," Wolff says. "I mean, at one level, it's clearly a doctrinal shift that you are seeing here. But it's more of a pressure tool rather than a war on its own."

He elaborates that Ukraine has moved away from merely holding ground against Russian offensives in regions like Donetsk. The current, more sustained air campaign is possible, he says, because "they actually have the capabilities now, both in terms of the mass of drones and missiles that they have available, but also far more advanced technology that can really get very deep into Russia, and they are using that to the best effort that they can."

However, this offensive strategy is occurring against a backdrop of critical shortages, with President Zelenskyy actively appealing to European allies for more air defense interceptors. Wolff says that the need for Patriot systems and interceptor missiles remains the most urgent challenge facing Kyiv.

"This is right now what I would see as the most acute vulnerability that Ukraine has, and it's even arguably much more urgent than what happens on the front line itself," Wolff cautions.