From record-breaking heatwaves in Europe to typhoons and extreme rainfall in China, 2026 is already shaping up to be a year of extraordinary weather. Europe has experienced repeated heatwaves this year, while Asia has also faced storms and extreme rainfall. In China, Typhoon Dolphin was described as the strongest storm to have hit the country so far this year, while Beijing received around a third of its normal annual rainfall in just 24 hours.

In this episode of RAZOR, Neil Cairns speaks with Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the UK Met Office, about why extreme weather is becoming more common and how a developing El Niño could intensify risks around the world. 

El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and one of the biggest year-to-year fluctuations in the global climate system. What makes this year unusual is the speed of warming. Prof. Scaife says it is "the fastest warming of the tropical Pacific" he has seen in forecasts since at least 2000, raising the possibility of a record event. Although "Super El Niño" is not a formal scientific term, it is often used to describe an event of exceptional intensity.

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A strong El Niño can shift rainfall and atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific, increasing drought risks in some regions while bringing heavier rain elsewhere. For China and East Asia, Prof. Scaife says the effects can continue even after El Niño itself has peaked. Changes in atmospheric winds can strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon, bringing more warm, moist air over land and increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding the following summer.

Scientists expect the current El Niño to strengthen toward the end of the year before gradually weakening. But its influence could last for months afterward. For Scaife, this makes forecasting especially important. Better climate models and observations can give governments and communities more time to prepare for floods, droughts and other extreme events.

"That's why it's so important that we keep trying to predict these things," he says, stressing that forecasts need to be used for practical planning and preparedness.