Will a small-town vote in England's northwest change the future of the UK?

In a small corner of northwest England, home to just over 0.1% of the country's population, a decision is brewing that could determine the future of the United Kingdom. 

The constituency of 44,000 households will go to the polls on Thursday to vote for Makerfield's new Member of Parliament (MP) after the resignation of Labour's Josh Simons triggered a by-election. All eyes are on his replacement as Labour candidate, Andy Burnham, who stepped down from his third term as the mayor of nearby city Manchester for the chance to become an MP. 

If Burnham wins, he will re-enter Parliament, which means he can challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the center-left governing Labour Party – and therefore the position of Prime Minister. If he loses – which is perfectly possible, with the right-wing Reform party close behind in the polls while the left-leaning Green party also targets the seat – his political career might never recover.   

So how did this collection of former mining communities become the epicenter of British politics?

Pressure on Starmer

The wheels began turning in early May, when details regarding Starmer's appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as US ambassador came to light. Several high-profile ministers resigned in protest at how Mandelson, a once-close friend of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed.  

As Starmer battled against pressure from his own party to step down, rumors grew of a potential leadership contest against the prime minister. As rules require any official challenge to come from a sitting MP, Burnham was initially unable to enter the contest. However, that changed quickly when Makerfield's MP Josh Simons announced his intention to step down – specifically to create a pathway for Burnham. 

Burnham, who had previously been blocked by No.10 from standing for election as MP in nearby Gorton and Denton, was this time given permission to go ahead. Now, his name is on the poll sheet, and a win could open the doors for an official Labour leadership contest between a determined Starmer, and the so-called ‘King of the North’.

Starmer, who is currently attending the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains in France, has said that if there was a challenge, he would fight it. In a possible bid to prevent such a turn of events, he has also indicated that a cabinet job would be waiting for Burnham should he win in Makerfield, with Starmer describing the former mayor as a "huge asset" to the party.

For Burnham to challenge Starmer, he would need the support of 81 Labour MPs (20% of the party's sitting MPs) to trigger a leadership contest. From there, party members and affiliated trade union supporters vote by ranking the candidates in order of preference in an iterative elimination process, until one candidate has more than 50% of votes.

If the contest is triggered, it will be the first time a Labour prime minister has ever faced a formal leadership challenge from their MPs.

'Red Wall' no more

The results in Makerfield are far from guaranteed. While the area has long been part of Labour's 'Red Wall', some residents are disgruntled by the assumption that Burnham will walk into parliament from the vote.

Andy Birchall, a Labour supporter of 30 years, told CGTN Europe's Jen Copestake that some of his friends and family were planning to vote for the far-right anti-immigration party Reform UK instead. 

"That's their way of fighting back, that's their way of saying we've had enough – we've had 40 years of people promising us things, we've had enough."

In other parts of the constituency, advocacy for Burnham, who has been heralded as a voice for the country's neglected north, runs deep. Butcher and long-time Burnham supporter Peter Cain sees the vote as a chance for change.

"I think the people of Ashton [-in-Makerfield] don't realise how important this is, because if Andy Burnham wins here, he could become the next Prime Minister."

Whichever way the vote goes on Thursday, the results will be telling. Success for Burnham could mean a new path for the UK; on the other hand, success for Reform will reveal the country's direction has already changed.