News of a 'peace deal' between the US and Iran has been treated with cautious hope rather than overwhelming optimism, with political experts noting several potential problems and obstacles before the conflict is over. 

Elijah J Magnier, a veteran war correspondent and political risk analyst, told CGTN that he holds serious concerns about the agreement, Israel's non-involvement, and the differing political needs of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"It is far from being a peace deal – it is a framework agreement between the United States and Iran, excluding Israel," noted Magnier, who feels this means Israel can "say 'I'm not in, therefore I need to look after my own national security.'"

With the signing due on Friday in Geneva, that leaves several days of precarious peace – and Magnier warned that "in theory the Israelis should not open fire in Lebanon."

Magnier worries that Lebanon could be the deal-breaker. "Israel said it's not going to withdraw," he said, "and the framework is saying any point that is not fully agreed and fulfilled, everything will collapse. Because this is point one, it is the end of the war in Lebanon and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces."

For Magnier, the fundamental problem lies in the different electoral needs of Trump and Netanyahu. 

"Benjamin Netanyahu has the election of the prime ministership, and the Knesset before that," he said. "If he fails these elections, he is going to face three corruption charges and will go to jail – unless he confesses his guilt, and then there is a possibility of the Israeli president to pardon him.

"But that will be the end of his career, and this is not something that Benjamin Netanyahu is looking ahead to retire. Therefore, he's going to fight. And to fight, he needs to regain the war in one way or another. 

"Therefore, it is going to be challenging for Donald Trump, because Trump wants the end of this war. And what is valid for Israel is not valid for America. Donald Trump needs peace to run the midterm elections, and Benjamin Netanyahu needs war for his election." 

Magnier also pinpointed a further issue with the peace framework – in its order of business compared to the 2015 deal, or 'Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action'.

"In the JCPOA in 2015, Iran needed to prove its goodwill and took all the measures before the agreements," he says. "Now it's the other way around. The Americans are taking all the steps before the Iranians and once these are confirmed by the Iranians, then the Iranians are moving on their side.

"This is going to put us in a very serious problem if Donald Trump is going to say 'I'm not giving back Iran its frozen assets, I'm not lifting all sanctions…' There are so many traps ahead, and this is why I said from the start this is a framework agreement, far from being a peace deal."