What will the UK local elections mean for PM Starmer?

It may not be a general election, but on May 7 more than 30 million people in Britain can vote. 

Those in England will be voting for county councillors rather than MPs – but with simultaneous elections for the devolved Welsh and Scottish parliaments, and with around 75% of the British electorate having a vote, it is being seen by many as a vote of confidence in the UK's national Labour government.

In Basildon, Essex, many members of the public were critical of politicians – especially from the two main parties, Labour and Conservative, who have formed UK's governments for the past century.

"They don't follow things through," a barber told CGTN. "There's a crisis, 'OK, we're looking into it.' That's as far as it gets, and just leaves people to suffer and pick up the pieces, carry on as though nothing's happened. That's the problem."

"They say one thing, and they don't do it," said a retired woman. "And they say 'Oh, I've done this and done that.' And they haven't done nothing."

"I wish the Labour Party could get out more of what they have been doing over the last few years," said another. 

Local votes, national issues

Voting for around 5,000 councillors in 136 county councils is important for local issues – those elected will decide how much to spend on health, education, roads and transport in their areas – but it's the UK government that decides on crucial economy, tax, defense and foreign affairs.

For months, opinion polls have reflected the unpopularity of both the current Labour government and the official opposition, the Conservatives. In these local elections it seems voters will turn towards the smaller Green Party, Reform and the Liberal Democrats – while those in Wales and Scotland will have a pro-independence option in Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party respectively. 

Keir Starmer became Prime Minister after the 2024 general election, when Labour profited from a 23.7% plummet in the popular vote for the previous Conservative incumbents. Since then, Starmer's approval rating has collapsed. 

He and his government are accused of major policy mistakes and disconnecting from the people, along with the political damage caused by the ambassadorial appointment of Peter Mandelson, later exposed as a friend of the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

"People are looking for answers. They don't feel that life is improving," says Carwyn Jones – a Labour peer in the House of Lords, and Wales’s First Minister between 2009 and 2018.

"In the 1990s, people had a genuine sense of optimism about where Britain was going. Since 2008, that hasn't been the case. 

"I think there have been a lot of headwinds that this government in London have had to face. On the international stage, we have Iran. People still feel they're being pressed because of the cost of living. And people wanted to see change happen very, very quickly. That hasn't happened."

Labour pincered by Reform and Green

Targeting Labour voters' discontent is the populist Reform UK party – which is also displacing the center-right Conservatives. Leader Nigel Farage predicts his party will do "stunningly well," and even threaten Starmer's position: "I suspect the results on May 7 – if I'm right about how Reform are doing – will be the end of his premiership."

Also joining the fight for votes is Reform's political polar opposite, the Green Party. While Reform seeks to capitalize on doubts around the established parties, the Greens are campaigning vigorously as the left-wing option instead of Labour. 

"We had 14 years of Conservative austerity," said leader Zack Polanski at the Green Party election launch in south London, "and then we elected a Labour government two years ago that promised change. I don't know about you, but I've not seen much change…"

The Greens hope to attract disaffected Labour voters in poorer inner-city urban areas, as well as traditional supporters who are worried about environmental issues. It worked in a Manchester by-election last autumn – seeing off a high-profile Reform campaign – and secured the party another UK MP.

But Polanski's concerns aren't just local. "I think we need to have a conversation about what does rebuilding a relationship with our European neighbors look like," he said. "And that's because I could already see that Donald Trump was unpredictable and dangerous…

"What I want to see is building up stronger relationships with our European neighbors and frankly building up our own economic sovereignty and military sovereignty in this country."

Liberal concerns

Despite an election buildup dominated by Reform UK and the Greens, there is a chance that the largest party in English local government on May 8 could be the Liberal Democrats.

Traditionally the third-largest group in the UK parliament, the Lib Dems are pursuing a campaign of breaking through to run more local authorities in England. They've launched a big digital advert campaign, specifically targeting Nigel Farage and highlighting his support for Trump. Party leader Ed Davey is openly critical of the president. 

Lib Dem analysts – whose precise targeting of seats during the 2024 general election rocketed the party from 8 seats to 72 on just 12.2% of the popular vote – also believe that Farage is such a polarizing figure that 'anyone but Reform' tactical voting will play a part. 

Particularly in London, it's not only Labour that could lose support but also their main opposition in the UK Parliament, the Conservatives. Pre-election opinion polling suggests the Conservative vote could halve in some regions. 

Although these are local elections, campaigning has had a national and international backdrop. The sense of grievance with higher fuel, travel and food prices is likely to influence how many will vote.

The results could have major ramifications at a national level, and not just reflecting a move away from Britain's traditional two-party politics.  

Potentially, the UK government in Westminster could face separatist leadership or co-leadership – from Plaid Cymru, the Scottish Nationalist Party and Sinn Fein – in the three devolved assemblies of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland respectively. 

It might not just be an uncertain world internationally, but within the United Kingdom as well.