The war in Iran may impact Europe's car industry, driving more people to choose electric vehicles (EVs). 

The conflict has been devastating, claiming nearly 3,500 lives in just over two months.

It's also exacting an economic cost - not nearly as serious as the human toll, but still significant.

Experts are already warning oil prices will push up inflation, squeezing the budgets of consumers around the world. 

And as the price tag at the pump grows, new data from trade association E-Mobility Europe suggests a growing shift away from combustion engines, with EV registrations climbing 51% year-on-year in March*.

E-Mobility is pointing to the war, saying many drivers are weighing the impact on fuel prices.

A crude awakening?

The United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran on February 28. Brent crude oil cost around $73 per barrel at the time, but climbed to $111 within three weeks. 

Prices have spiked because of fears of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, off Iran's southern coast. The strait is a vital part of the global oil supply chain, with nearly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade passing through it each year.  

EVs do not rely on petrol or diesel, which is produced from oil. E-Mobility's figures suggest European consumers are looking for vehicles that offer protection from rising oil prices. 

"Oil dependence has become a real vulnerability," says Chris Heron, secretary-general of E-Mobility.

"Across the EU's major markets, EV sales are growing at rates above 40%, marking a clear step change, not statistical noise."

The trust factor  

So where are these EVs coming from? 

Broadly speaking, Germany makes one out of every two EVs sold in Europe. That's not surprising, as it's been the hub of Europe's auto sector for decades.

But over the last few years, the European EV sector has started to look a little less European. Figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) show that Chinese-made EVs accounted for 22%, or nearly a quarter, of the EU market in 2023. 

And there's an important bit of nuance in that number. Nearly 65% of those EVs were made in China, but not for Chinese brands. In other words, Western automakers are building these cars in China. 

They're doing that because its auto sector has reliable infrastructure and strong supply chains. Labour is also highly skilled and relatively cheap. All of that makes China an attractive destination for EV makers. 

But some consumers still have doubts.

Chinese EV firm Zeekr ran a survey in 2025, asking Europeans about Chiese car brands. Just 40% felt that China's premium EV models were 'as good' as those from Europe or the US. 

Nearly half of respondents thought Chinese EVs offered "value for money". That belief is grounded in the price tag, as many Chinese models are cheaper than their Western counterparts.

For context, the Swiss bank UBS conducted a 'deep dive' study after China's BYD released its Seal model in Europe in 2023. It found that the Seal had a 25% cost advantage over so-called legacy brands, which are mostly based in Europe. 

Of course, price is not the only factor in a purchasing decision. But the Iran conflict could drive inflation higher, as rising oil prices feed into the cost of everyday goods. If that happens, price may become more important to consumers than it was a few months ago. 

The data suggests many are already getting nervous. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey asks Europeans to predict inflation levels in a year's time. The median response in February was 2.5%. In March, it climbed to 4%. 

It's not clear if that will push them to 'buy Chinese'. But if anything, rising prices may force some to rethink their approach to goods made in China.

Is it time for a change in mindset? The longer the conflict drags on, the longer that question will linger.  

*Editor's note: E-Mobility Europe's research covers 15 states that are either in the European Union or part of the European Free Trade Association.