Summer is still a few months away but the streets of Croatia's old town of Dubrovnik are already teeming with tourists from all over the world. Usually, this would be a sign of a strong season ahead. This year, however, optimism is clouded by uncertainty.

Global instability fueled by the war in Iran and surging fuel prices have brought an air of unpredictability to the global tourism industry, including Dubrovnik, which is Croatia's top Adriatic Sea destination, drawing millions of visitors every year.

Though arrivals have been up without cancellations, tourism officials are warning that nothing is guaranteed.

'Very difficult situation'

The fuel crisis and tensions in the Persian Gulf could drive up airfares and slow arrivals just as the season gathers pace.

"The situation is for sure very, very difficult. And we are following what is happening every day," said Miro Draskovic, director of the Dubrovnik Tourist Board. "The situation cannot be planned," he added, highlighting the fact that the number of US tourists' visits hasn't suffered so far.

The situation is, for now, better than expected. Dubrovnik airport has recorded a 13 percent rise over Easter compared to the same period last year.

The town's bustling streets and boats ferrying tourists around testify to the town's lasting appeal.

Dating back to the medieval times, Dubrovnik is a UNESCO-protected heritage site praised for its history as a trade hub, unique position by the sea, churches and palaces within the stone walls.

Coastal gem

Its popularity soared further after it served as a filming site for the popular TV series Game of Thrones.

Because of its location at the southern tip of Croatia's Adriatic Sea coastline, around 80 percent of visitors come to Dubrovnik by plane. Croatia's northern and central coastline regions, as well as its hundreds of islands, are much more easily accessed by car or by ferry.

This means that Dubrovnik could be hit more than other parts of Croatia's coastline if the fuel crisis deepens. Already, there have been fewer visitors from Australia, who are normally among the top 10 nations coming to Dubrovnik, Draskovic said.

"If the air traffic is stable, we are going to see a good season," he said. "But if there are problems in supplies or prices, then obviously the air fares will go up and then we are probably facing a problem."

'Cautious' about upcoming season

Dubrovnik is linked to some 70 airports throughout the world and is expanding, Marina Ruso Mileusnic, an airport spokeswoman, said. There have been no problems so far, but she acknowledged that "we are very cautious about the upcoming season."

Predictions for the weeks and months ahead have varied.

In early April, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned in an interview that Europe has just weeks of jet fuel supplies and could face the biggest energy crisis ever.

This week, however, European Union's Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said there is "no actual evidence" of shortages in the 27-nation bloc as officials urged people to plan their holidays without fear.

High stakes

Ramon Padiernos, a businessman from Singapore, agreed. The crisis in the Middle East meant he had to swap his favorite carriers Emirates and Qatar Airways for Turkish Airlines. But he still made it to Dubrovnik.

"We don't feel any impact aside from, I think, maybe oil price, the gas and fuel prices," said the businessman. "Everybody just goes on with their lives and enjoys their holidays. It is the best thing for the world to see the lighter side rather than focusing on the issues we cannot control."

The stakes for Croatia's economy are high - the tourism sector is one of the most important branches, and is largely dependent on international travelers, particularly in Dubrovnik. An EU member since 2013, Croatia's tourism industry has surged in recent years following the wars in the Balkans in the 1990s.

Apart from an impact on tourism, the energy crisis is partially responsible for a rise in inflation in Croatia to 5.8 percent in April.

Last year, the country recorded nearly 22 million tourist arrivals. Out of some 110 million overnight stays in 2025, Dubrovnik alone had 4.28 million, according to the national tourism board. This secured the town's place at the top of the list of the most successful destinations in the country.

Draskovic said hopes are high that things will soon get back to normal. Until then, he said, "we can only work on a day-to-day basis to get the best possible season we can."