The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), delivering a significant blow to the world's largest group of oil producers as geopolitical tensions strain unity among Gulf nations.

According to analysts, in the long term the UAE could seek to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz if the Iran conflict continues, which has already affected a significant share of global oil and gas shipments.

Ongoing threats and attacks linked to Iran have constrained exports from Gulf producers such as the UAE.

If these disruptions persist, leaving OPEC would allow the UAE "to invest in additional bypass infrastructure and boost production toward its target of 5 million barrels per day, without the constraints of OPEC," senior analyst Naveen Das at Kpler told CGTN.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the move followed a comprehensive review of the country's long-term energy strategy.

Despite the high-profile departure, Mazrouei downplayed its immediate market impact, citing existing production limitations due to the conflict.

The UAE, one of OPEC's longstanding members and a major oil producer, confirmed it will formally exit both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ coalition on May 1.

Oil prices, which had been rising amid supply concerns, trimmed gains following the announcement.

According to Johannes Benigni, director of energy and politics at JBC Vienna, "the UAE came under particularly heavy pressure during the Iran-Gulf War and is now likely to have decided to go its own way in order to step out of Saudi Arabia's shadow." Saudi-Arabia is OPEC's de-facto leader.

"An independent production policy reduces the constraints that OPEC has repeatedly imposed on all its members," Benigni told CGTN.

According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC+'s share of global oil output has already dropped significantly in recent months and could decline further as disruptions intensify.

The UAE's exit also reflects shifting alliances.

A key US partner, the country has strengthened ties with Washington and Israel since normalizing relations under the Abraham Accords.

The development could also be seen as a political win for the US President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized OPEC for influencing global oil prices.

Meanwhile, Gulf leaders are scrambling to respond to escalating regional threats, including missile and drone strikes tied to the Iran conflict.

With global spare capacity already near historic lows, the UAE's departure underscores growing uncertainty in energy markets—and signals a potential shift toward a more fragmented oil landscape.