US and Iran agree two-week ceasefire as oil crashes 16%

HEADLINES IN BRIEF

- The US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire less than two hours before Trump's deadline; Trump declared it "total and complete victory." READ MORE BELOW

- Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared a "historic and crushing defeat" of the US and Israel, saying Washington had been forced to accept Tehran's 10-point terms including a permanent ceasefire, sanctions removal, and US troop withdrawal from the region. READ MORE BELOW

- Oil fell 16% — the largest single-day drop since the Gulf War of 1991 — with Brent dipping below $95 a barrel; Asian stocks surged up to 6%. READ MORE BELOW

- The ceasefire is conditioned on the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran continued firing missiles at Israel and Gulf states in the hours after the announcement. READ MORE BELOW

- Iran submitted a 10-point plan; Trump called it a "workable basis" for negotiations. Talks are expected Friday in Islamabad, with Vice President Vance leading the US delegation. READ MORE BELOW

- Israel said the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon; the IDF issued fresh evacuation warnings for Beirut's southern suburbs and continued strikes. READ MORE BELOW

- Full recovery of Gulf oil supplies could take three to six months; Iran is expected to charge vessels up to $2 million for Hormuz passage. READ MORE BELOW

- Iraq's Islamic Resistance said it would suspend operations across the region for two weeks.

- The war has killed more than 5,000 people across nearly a dozen countries in six weeks;

- China and Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution authorizing defensive force to protect Hormuz shipping on Tuesday; Beijing called it "extremely dangerous" given the timing. READ MORE BELOW

IN DETAIL

The 11th-hour deal: how it happened

The agreement, which few of Trump's own advisers expected, was struck in the final hours before a deadline Trump had said would end "a whole civilization." According to an Axios reconstruction based on 11 sources, the turning point came Monday when Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — communicating largely through handwritten notes via couriers due to assassination fears — gave negotiators the first clear signal to pursue a deal.

Vice President Vance worked the phones from Budapest, coordinating with Pakistan as the primary mediator. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had described Iran's counter-proposal as late as Monday morning as "a catastrophe" and "a failure." Foreign ministers of Egypt and Türkiye also participated in the final round of edits. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi played a critical internal role, persuading IRGC commanders to accept the terms.

Until the final minutes, Trump's allies — including Netanyahu, Saudi and Emirati leadership, and Senator Lindsey Graham — were urging him to reject any deal without major Iranian concessions. Netanyahu gave his sign-off only minutes before Trump's Truth Social post. US military forces received the order to halt strikes fifteen minutes after the announcement was published.

"We had no idea what was going to happen. It was madness," one American military official told Axios. The Pentagon had been preparing a large-scale bombing campaign against Iranian infrastructure until the final moment.

Iranian state TV initially framed the ceasefire as an "humiliating retreat" by Trump. The White House responded immediately: "Trump and the US military forced Iran to agree to open Hormuz."

Trump told AFP it was a "total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it."

What the deal contains

The US and Israel will pause strikes on Iran for two weeks. Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks, including through its proxies — Iraq's Islamic Resistance announced a suspension of operations within hours. Negotiations toward a permanent settlement are to begin Friday in Islamabad.

Trump said Iran's 10-point plan was a "workable basis on which to negotiate" and that he expected an agreement to be "finalised and consummated" within the two-week window. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the outcome as a victory, saying Trump had accepted Tehran's conditions. Trump's own 15-point plan remains the US baseline: "We have a 15-point transaction, of which most of those things have been agreed on," he told AFP.

Israel endorsed the pause on Iran strikes but stated the ceasefire explicitly excludes Lebanon — a direct contradiction of Pakistan's prime minister, who said the deal covered Lebanon as well.

Iran declares 'historic victory'

Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared the outcome a "historic and crushing defeat" for the United States and Israel. In a statement addressed to the "noble, great, and heroic nation of Iran," the council said the enemy "now sees no way forward but to submit to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honorable Axis of Resistance." It described the past 40 days as among the "heaviest combined battles in history," in which Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza had inflicted blows "the historical memory of the world will never forget."

The council said Washington had been compelled to accept Iran's 10-point proposal in full — including a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of all sanctions, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region. Foreign Minister Araghchi claimed Iran's halt of strikes as a conditional and sovereign decision: "If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations." On Hormuz, Tehran specified that passage would be possible only "via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations" — language that preserves significant Iranian control over the waterway.

Trump flatly rejected Iran's framing, telling AFP the outcome was "total and complete victory. 100 percent." The White House added: "Trump and the US military forced Iran to agree to open Hormuz." The two sides have agreed to a ceasefire while offering their own publics entirely different accounts of who prevailed.

Oil drops 16%

Brent crude fell below $95 a barrel — the largest single-day drop since the Gulf War of 1991, though prices remain nearly $25 above pre-war February levels. Asian markets surged: Japan's Nikkei gained 5%, South Korea's Kospi more than 6%. 

Analysts cautioned against expecting a rapid return to normal supply. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said passage through Hormuz would be possible "in coordination with Iranian armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations" — language that preserves Tehran's ability to define compliance on its own terms. According to AP, Iran intends to charge vessels up to $2 million per transit, formalizing a toll system it has operated informally throughout the war. The arrangement violates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which prohibits charges for innocent passage through territorial waters, though no enforcement mechanism currently exists.

Insurers are also moving cautiously. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas estimated full recovery of Gulf production and refining capacity could take three to six months. Damaged Qatari LNG infrastructure may require years of repairs.

Ceasefire fragile; attacks continue after announcement

More than an hour after Trump's announcement, the Israeli military reported fresh ballistic missiles launched from Iran, with interceptions heard over Tel Aviv. Israeli media reported retaliatory strikes on Iranian launch sites. Gulf states faced intense waves of incoming fire simultaneously.

Kuwait's military said its air defenses intercepted 28 drones since 8:00 a.m. on Wednesday, some targeting vital oil facilities and power stations in the south of the country, resulting in what the General Staff described as "significant material damage to oil infrastructure facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants." Bahrain's Interior Ministry confirmed that houses in the Sitra area were damaged by shrapnel from an intercepted Iranian drone. The UAE Ministry of Defense said its air defenses had engaged a cumulative total of 520 ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles, and 2,221 drones since the start of the war — and confirmed systems were still actively intercepting missiles and drones hours after the ceasefire announcement.

The ceasefire formally takes effect once Iran reopens Hormuz — meaning both sides are watching the other for the first move. A source briefed on the talks told Reuters the US side believed Iran may be trying to "buy time." It was a "trust-building exercise," the source said.

Israel continues Lebanon campaign

The IDF confirmed it had ceased fire against Iran in line with orders from the political echelon, but issued its third consecutive urgent evacuation warning for Beirut's southern suburbs on Wednesday, naming the neighborhoods of Haret Hreik, Burj Al-Barajneh, and Ghobeiry. "The battle in Lebanon continues, and the ceasefire does not include Lebanon," the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman Colonel Avichay Adraee said on X. Lebanese state media reported continued Israeli artillery and airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including a dawn strike near a hospital that killed four people.

China and Russia veto UN Hormuz resolution

The UN Security Council voted 11-2 on Tuesday on a Bahrain-drafted resolution authorizing member states to use "all necessary means" to ensure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. China and Russia vetoed; Colombia and Pakistan abstained.

China's UN Ambassador Fu Cong said the resolution was "unbalanced," failed to address the root causes of the conflict, and was timed dangerously. "Against this background, we think it is extremely dangerous for the Security Council to adopt a resolution like this," he said after the vote. Russia said the text unilaterally attributed blame to Iran while ignoring the context of US-Israeli strikes. Iran called it politically motivated. The US said it would continue working with allies to ensure Hormuz navigation regardless of the vote's outcome.