US-Iran: 'Boots on the ground is a very different matter'

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iran conflict have been underway in parallel with an escalating military build-up.

Speaking to CGTN, a senior military analyst has said that the prospect of US ground troops entering the region may be as much about leverage at the negotiating table as it is about battlefield strategy.

Retired air vice-marshal Sean Bell was speaking to CGTN following a Wall Street Journal report that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 soldiers to the Middle East, on top of the 7,000 ground troops already heading to the region.

Bell explained that the initial wave of forces, between 5,000 and 7,000 US Marines drawn from Okinawa and the west coast of the United States, are specialist amphibious troops, capable of moving personnel from sea to land using dedicated ships and helicopter support. 

'Incredibly potent force'

He noted they are also equipped with F-35B fighter jets, the vertical takeoff and landing variant of the stealth aircraft. 

"It's an incredibly potent force," he said. The additional 10,000, he suggested, appear to function as a bolstering contingent once an initial land position has been established. Bell was quick to put the numbers in context, however, warning that the overall force remains relatively limited. 

"When America invaded Iraq, we were talking about 300,000 forces, and Iran sounds like it's got well over a million forces under arms," he said. "This is a very small number at the moment."

On the question of whether Iran should fear an imminent ground offensive, Bell argued that Tehran is unlikely to be caught off guard, drawing on his own military experience. 

"I war-gamed this scenario when I was in the military, and it always ends up the same way, Iran gets pummeled by conventional military forces, but it always ends up controlling the Strait of Hormuz," he said. 

'Very vulnerable'

He added that President Trump, facing midterm elections and having been elected on a platform of ending rather than starting wars, has little appetite for a prolonged campaign. 

"As soon as you put boots on the ground it becomes incredibly vulnerable," said Bell, adding to his assessment that the troop deployment may be primarily a calculated signal. 

"President Trump loves doing a deal, and you've got to have leverage if you're going to do a deal," he said. "Just the fact that these soldiers are being widely reported as going to the region will just sow a seed of doubt in the Iranian leadership's mind. They've withstood the air pounding, but boots on the ground is a very different matter."

As for where those troops might ultimately be directed, Bell outlined two possibilities. 

Securing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global energy passes, would require a far larger force and a significant land operation along the Iranian shore, which he described as highly unlikely. 

The more plausible scenario, he said, centers on Kharg Island, located several hundred miles northwest of the Strait in the Gulf, where Iran loads the majority of its oil onto tankers. 

"Controlling that might put a constraint around Iran's revenue and could therefore add some more leverage," Bell said, though he acknowledged such forces would be "very vulnerable" in that position.