US President Donald Trump seems to have stepped up his efforts to end the conflict in Iran – but the path to peace is far from clear, a political expert has told CGTN.
After warning Iran that he would attack its energy infrastructure if it did not allow oil through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump suddenly announced that there had been "good" and "productive" talks with Tehran – although Iran denied any contact with the Trump administration.
Dr. Andrew Sanders, senior lecturer in politics at Leicester's De Montfort University in the UK, said that "a combination of things" had forced Trump to change tack, including a "rapid increase in the price of oil and the impact of prices at the pump… combined with the cost of living crisis.
"We're in the midst of an election campaign ahead of the November midterm elections and clearly a number of people who are allied to President Trump across the US are feeling the pressure from their constituents as well," Sanders continued.
"More broadly, there's a little bit of international diplomatic efforts going on pressure from allies across the Middle East to try and come to some sort of a conclusion."
However, Sanders warns that the conflict requires something more complicated than a simple bilateral solution between Washington and Tehran.
"We need to remember that this isn't just a situation between the US and Iran – the Israelis are involved as well. There's been incidents in Lebanon, and clearly, there's a lot going on that comes from Tel Aviv."
US President Donald Trump returned to the White on Monday after a complicated weekend. /Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Given that, Sanders notes that Trump won't only be negotiating with whoever represents Iran – he will also have to reach agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously called upon Iranians to "overthrow the regime."
"I think the US will try to bring Israel into the same frame of thinking, but we need to remember that the Israeli perspective on Iran is quite different. From the US perspective, there's a lot to do with the economic impact, but from the Israeli perspective, a lot of people there perceive this as a national security threat in a very deep and meaningful way."
Sanders welcomes offers of outside mediation, including from Pakistani and Saudi officials, but warns the complicated nature of the conflict means it will require many participants.
"We're clearly going to need to see participation from allies of both the US and Israel, and Iran, across the Middle East, coming to the table and trying to figure out a path through this," he said.
"It's going to be complicated, but it's also necessary – it's in nobody's interest to continue the violence, and hopefully those diplomatic efforts can reach a conclusion."
One alternative is a broader regional conflict, dragging in more Middle Eastern nations.
"We would certainly hope that it doesn't reach that situation, but we can't ignore the possibility that that is one potential outcome," Sanders said.
"There's always a chance that a stray missile or a stray drone could cause some sort of damage that provokes a reaction and then things can escalate. So it's important that those talks continue and that all sides and the intermediaries understand where each other is in this."
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