Ukraine-Russia: Four years of death, destruction and displacement

Four years after Russia launched its military offensive in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the campaign has reshaped borders, devastated infrastructure and exacted a vast human and economic toll on both countries.

From prisoner swaps to several rounds of peace talks, we take a look at the impact of the conflict on Russia and Ukraine.

Death toll 

According to a January 2026 estimate by the US think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russia has suffered as many as 325,000 military deaths. Adding in those thought to be wounded or missing takes the estimation to 1,200,000 military casualties. 

The same source estimates Ukrainian military deaths at between 100,000 and 140,000. Again, adding in the wounded and missing takes the estimate to between 500,000 and 600,000.

Civilian fatalities stand at 7,254 in Russia and 15,954 in Ukraine.

It should be noted, though, that such figures are understandably difficult to verify – and that data from third-party think tanks can diverge significantly from official government figures. Russia has not released figures since September 2022, when the then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed; earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died. 

Military damage

Military equipment losses are also extensive. Russia has lost 24,099 vehicles and pieces of equipment, including 13,887 tanks and armored vehicles, 361 aircraft and 29 naval vessels. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine has lost 11,380, including 5,596 tanks and armored vehicles, 194 aircraft and 42 naval vessels.

Displacement of people

Displacement has affected millions in both countries. 

In Russia, 5,000 people were internally displaced as of August 2025. 

About 1,000,000 people, which is 0.7 percent of Russia's 2022 population, left the country in the first year of the offensive. Between 15 and 45 percent of them have since returned, but some 550,000 to 850,000 have not.

On the other hand, Ukraine has seen 10,600,000 people displaced, 24 percent of its pre-offensive population of 44,000,000. This figure includes 6,900,000 internally displaced and 3,700,000 international refugees.

Prisoner swaps 

During the course of the offensive, Ukraine and Russia have conducted dozens of prisoner exchanges, often involving both military personnel and civilians. 

By mid-2025, Ukrainian officials reported that more than 5,850 people held by Russia had been brought home through prisoner swaps since the start of the conflict. 

In 2025, at least 10 confirmed exchange operations took place, as well as a major coordinated three-day swap under agreements following talks in Istanbul. During these exchanges, Ukraine secured the return of 2,310 people from Russian captivity. This figure included 2,080 military personnel and 230 civilians. Russia received an equal number of prisoners in return as part of these negotiated swaps. 

A notable large exchange in May 2025 saw both sides agree to a '1,000-for-1,000' swap. 

In the first phase of this operation, 390 prisoners from each side were exchanged. Subsequent phases saw further releases, bringing the total exchanged in this coordinated effort close to 1,000 on each side over the course of several days. 

Another significant swap occurred on August 24, 2025, when 146 prisoners of war were exchanged from each side following mediation from the United Arab Emirates. In this exchange, Ukraine also returned eight Russian civilians in addition to the 146 POWs. 

The 71st prisoner exchange took place on February 5, 2026, resulting in the return of 157 Ukrainians from Russian captivity; this number included seven civilians. Russia also received 157 prisoners in this swap. 

Russian forces are currently holding up to 7,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war, while Ukraine holds around 4,000 Russian prisoners of war, Zelenskyy said in mid February after the Munich Security Conference.

Infrastructure losses

In March 2025, an investigation by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) estimated Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy sector caused at least $714 million in damage. 

As of October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly forced nearly 40 percent of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70 percent of shutdowns directly linked to the strikes, according to Russian energy market data. 

However, a November 2025 Reuters estimate said Russia's oil processing had fallen just three percent despite the attacks.

In January 2026, Russia's western border regions, including Belgorod Oblast, experienced weeks-long outages caused by Ukrainian strikes, with heating at only 50 percent capacity and thousands left without power. 

Around 100,000 customers in Belgorod were without running water earlier in the month after power surges linked to Ukrainian airstrikes forced two pumping stations into emergency shutdown.

While initially reticent, Ukraine has subsequently acknowledged its attacks on the bridge connecting to Russian-controlled Crimea, as well as Russian military airports. Kyiv claims attacks on civilian airports have been "long-range strikes" intended for nearby military and industrial assets.

Ukraine has also been accused of involvement in the September 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, although Kyiv has consistently denied this. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine estimates it had lost 80 percent of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024. 

By May 2025, some 90 percent of its thermal power generation was destroyed. About 50 percent of hydropower installations were damaged and 40 percent destroyed as of May 2025. By fall 2025, Ukraine's energy infrastructure was operating at about one third of its pre-offensive generation capacity.

In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60 percent of Ukraine's gas production ahead of winter 2025–2026. Ukraine's overall electricity consumption has fallen around 30 percent since Russia began its military campaign.

According to The Economist, Ukraine's available generating capacity has fallen from 33.7 gigawatts at the start of the offensive to about 14 gigawatts as of January 2026, leading to blackouts lasting several days in parts of the country.

In February 2026, Zelenskyy estimated that every power plant in Ukraine has been damaged by Russian attacks. At one point, about half of Kyiv's 12,000 apartment buildings lost heating due to Russian strikes over the course of a week, according to a February estimate reported by the Financial Times.

Russian attacks on Ukraine's rail network have caused $5.8 billion in damages in the last four years, according to a December 2025 Wall Street Journal report.

Several rounds of peace talks 

Multiple rounds of negotiations have been attempted without producing a lasting ceasefire. 

The first talks were held on February 28, 2022, on the Belarus-Ukraine border, followed by additional rounds in Belarus and later in Türkiye, in March 2022, before discussions collapsed in April that year. 

In July 2022, Istanbul hosted talks that led to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a major diplomatic agreement focused on reopening Ukraine's grain exports. And in August 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a broader peace summit in Jeddah that Russia did not attend and which did not result in a settlement. 

Diplomatic efforts intensified again in 2025. In February, US and Russian leaders held a phone call and agreed to start negotiations. But in August, a summit in Alaska ended without a deal. 

On May 16, 2025, Ukraine and Russia held direct talks in Istanbul, their first in three years. The meeting did not lead to a ceasefire, but it produced a prisoner-exchange framework.

In January 2026, trilateral talks involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia were held in Abu Dhabi, followed by US-mediated discussions in Geneva on February 17–18, 2026, which concluded with limited progress.

With no end in sight, public opinion reflects fatigue for the military campaign. 

In Russia, 61 percent support peace negotiations – but in Ukraine, only 26 percent say they believe negotiations will be successful.