OPEC risks losing its largest oil reserves in Venezuela - What's next?

Difficult times for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) given the escalating conflict in Venezuela. 

Early reports suggest Venezuela's oil production and refining capacity suffered no damage from Saturday's US strikes. But Venezuela – a founding member of OPEC, the world's biggest group of petroleum producers – could face upheaval in its oil sector in case of a change of government. 

Sunday's meeting at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna had been expected to end with no major changes in oil output. 

The US strikes against Venezuela could change that, now it appears the US could take over control of OPEC's largest oil reserves.

After announcing the capture and removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump said the US will "run" Venezuela for the foreseeable future and would be very strongly involved in the country's oil sector.

Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves but its crude output remains at a fraction of capacity. 

In the 1970s, the country produced 7 percent of the world's oil output which over the years dropped to just around 1 percent of global production in 2025.

What does this mean for OPEC and its allies? 

in the long term, increased production in Venezuela could bring down global oil prices – which OPEC key member Saudi Arabia surely wants to avoid. It remains to be seen if and how the oil exporting group will react.

Meanwhile, Yemen's southern separatists welcomed on Saturday a call for dialogue by Saudi Arabia to end a recent military escalation, a potential sign that an unusually public confrontation between the kingdom and the United Arab Emirates may be easing.

How far the feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over their differences on regional security bleeds into other issues may become plainer over the weekend as both countries join a scheduled OPEC meeting to determine the group's oil output policy.