Is Russia set to trump US President on UN Gaza peace deal vote?

Last week the US officially launched negotiations within the 15-member UN Security Council on a text that would follow up on a ceasefire in the two-year war between Israel and Hamas and endorse Donald Trump's peace plan.

With the UN Council voting on Monday on a resolution on whether they are fully behind the US President's ambitions, Russia has been circulating a rival proposal that would strip out reference to a transitional authority meant to be headed by Trump and asks the UN to lay out options for an international stabilization force.

Moscow's representative has insisted their plan "does not contradict the American initiative", but Trump is likely to be feeling a little twitchy over losing some of the spotlight on being chief peacemaker.

The US and eight countries that have played a role in securing a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas urged "swift adoption" on Friday of the latest US draft resolution. Just one of the eight is on the Security Council - Pakistan.

The joint statement with Qatar, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Türkiye came after the US faced objections this week and made changes to its UN proposal to include more defined language on Palestinian self-determination, according to a UN diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The latest US draft and the Russian proposal are expected to be put up for a vote, with the diplomat adding that the American plan could garner the nine votes needed to pass, with Russia likely abstaining instead of using their vetoes.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump's ceasefire plan was the "best path to peace in the Middle East" and said the US resolution would enable the effort to move forward.

The US resolution endorses Trump's 20-point ceasefire plan, which calls for a yet-to-be-established Board of Peace as a transitional authority that he would head. It also would authorize member states to form a "temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF)" that would work with Israel and Egypt and newly trained Palestinian police to help secure border areas and demilitarize the Gaza Strip.

Arab and other countries that have expressed interest in participating in the stabilization force have indicated that such a mandate is necessary for them to contribute troops.

After facing objections from some UN Security Council members that the resolution didn't envision a future independent Palestinian state, the US made revisions.

It now says that after reforms to the Palestinian Authority are "faithfully carried out and Gaza redevelopment has advanced, the conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood."

Two-state ambitions

Russia's rival draft resolution includes stronger language supporting Palestinian statehood alongside Israel and stressing that the West Bank and Gaza must be joined as a state under the Palestinian Authority.

Russia's UN mission said in a statement that it took the step because the UN Security Council, responsible for maintaining international peace and security, "should be given a rightful role and the necessary tools to ensure accountability and control.”

Russia said council resolutions are also supposed to reaffirm fundamental decisions, "first and foremost the two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian settlement."

Russia said those provisions were not in the US draft, so it circulated its own text whose objective is "to amend the U.S. concept and bring it into conformity" with previous council decisions.

"We would like to stress that our document does not contradict the American initiative," the Russian mission said. "On the contrary, it notes the tireless efforts by the mediators - the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye - without which the long-awaited ceasefire and the release of hostages and detainees would have been impossible."

Russia said it also welcomes provisions of Trump's plan that brought about the ceasefire, release of hostages and detainees, exchange of bodies and resumption of humanitarian access and aid deliveries.

On Thursday, the US mission to the UN warned in a statement that "attempts to sow discord" have "grave, tangible and entirely avoidable consequences for Palestinians in Gaza." It urged the council to unite and pass the latest U.S. draft resolution.

The US has called the ceasefire "fragile," and is warning of the risks of not adopting its draft in Monday's vote.

"Any refusal to back this resolution is a vote either for the continued reign of Hamas terrorists or for the return to war with Israel, condemning the region and its people to perpetual conflict," the US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, said.

"Every departure from this path, be it by those who wish to play political games or to relitigate the past, will come with a real human cost."