Despite ceasefire, what potential problems face the Gaza peace deal?

As the ceasefire in Gaza continues, so does the hope of lasting peace – but there is still a long way to go, with many difficulties to overcome. 

Even within a day of starting the process of swapping Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, against the backdrop of a summit in Egypt led by an exultant U.S. President Donald Trump, the lethal violence continued. Hamas carried out public executions in Gaza and Israeli soldiers opened fire on Palestinians, killing at least six according to local authorities.

While Trump proclaimed the "historic dawn of a new Middle East" to Israel's parliament on Monday, some of the most difficult elements of his peace plan have yet to be negotiated to resolve issues that wrecked previous efforts to end the war.

The document at the heart of the deal leaves much undefined, and neither side agreed to the fine print of each term. That vagueness was important to getting both sides to sign on, but it also means some of the most difficult diplomatic work is just beginning.

"There are any number of ways this could go sideways," said Jon Alterman, Middle East expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official.

"It's hard to remember an international agreement that left so much to be worked out later."

What are the immediate potential problems in Gaza?

Despite the ceasefire, the firing hasn't quite ceased. 

Israel's military said it opened fire on Tuesday to remove a threat posed by suspects who approached its forces in the northern Gaza Strip, and health authorities in the enclave said at least six Palestinians had been killed by Israeli fire. 

The Israeli military said the suspects had crossed a boundary for an initial Israeli pullback under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire plan, in a violation of the deal.

By that time, Hamas fighters had already carried out public executions of men they accused of collaborating with Israeli forces. A video circulated late on Monday showed Hamas fighters dragging seven men into a circle of people in Gaza City, forcing them to their knees and shooting them from behind. A Hamas source confirmed the authenticity of the video.

Israel has insisted the conflict cannot end under Trump's peace plan until Hamas is disarmed, but Gaza residents said fighters were increasingly visible on Tuesday, deploying along routes needed for aid deliveries. Palestinian security sources say dozens of people have been killed in clashes between Hamas fighters and rivals in recent days.

Trump himself appeared to give consent to Hamas operations. Asked by a journalist aboard Air Force One about reports that Hamas was instituting itself as a police force and shooting rivals, Trump said "they do want to stop the problems, and they've been open about it, and we gave them approval for a period of time".

"You have close to 2 million people going back to buildings that have been demolished, and a lot of bad things can happen. So we want it to be – we want it to be safe. I think it's going to be fine. Who knows for sure," Trump added.

When Hamas fighters appeared in the streets during the last ceasefire in January-March, Israel abandoned the truce and called off negotiations on an end to the war. 

While Hamas agreed to this current peace plan in general, its official response made no mention of the plan's assertion that the group would disarm and play no role in Gaza's future administration, and Hamas leaders have indicated that they do in fact see a role for themselves in governing a post-war Gaza.

Trump's summit in Egypt ended with no public announcement of major progress towards establishing an international military force for Gaza, or a new governing body.

Problems with the return of hostages and prisoners 

In Monday's handover, Hamas released all 20 living Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, while Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The exchange was a key part of the peace process, but even that apparently successful swap brings up problems. 

Firstly, the remains of at least 23 dead hostages are still in Gaza – only four coffins containing the remains of deceased hostages have so far been returned to Israel.

Hamas had already indicated that recovering the bodies of some dead hostages may take longer, as not all burial sites amid the widespread rubble of Gaza are known.

On Tuesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross warned it could take days or weeks to find and return the missing remains, with spokesperson Christian Cardon calling it "an even bigger challenge than having the people alive being released."

Repatriating hostage remains is a key concern for Israel. Regular protests centered on the hostages have been held in Israel, sometimes attracting hundreds of thousands of participants and escalating into civil disorder and national strikes. 

Indeed, on Tuesday Israel officials said that as a sanction in reaction to the missing remains, the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt will stay closed through Wednesday and the flow of aid into the Palestinian enclave will be reduced.

Longer-term, there are concerns that a complete repatriation of hostages and prisoners might even hinder rather than help the peace process. 

Once the hostage remains are returned, Israel has a lot less to lose from renewing hostilities – and analysts say the political situation in the country will intensify ahead of an election due next year.  

Netanyahu's political and legal pressures

Ahead of that 2026 election, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach may shift as he attempts to keep his right-wing coalition together. Influential coalition allies, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have both criticized the ceasefire agreement, with national security minister Ben-Gvir threatening to quit the government in protest.

"We are troubled with the fact that Hamas still, today, declares it will stay in power in Gaza," said Simcha Rothman, a member of Smotrich's ultranationalist Religious Zionism party. "We are not happy with any deal that is not total surrender of Hamas ... We will not accept any partial victory."

Analysts warn that foot-dragging by Hamas over disarming could lead right-wing elements of the coalition to pressure Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza.

"We're entering a political year where everything is related to campaigns, and Netanyahu's calculations may flip from caving to pressure to trying to ensure his political survival," said Nimrod Goren, the president of Mitvim, an Israeli foreign policy think tank.

Netanyahu also faces legal pressure, both at home and abroad. In 2019 he was indicted by Israel's attorney general on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu denies all the charges, and although the conflict in Gaza has complicated and slowed the case, it is still ongoing. 

Furthermore, in November 2024 the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Israel's former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, alleging responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and "other inhumane acts" during the Gaza conflict. 

Netanyahu's office denounced the decision as "antisemitic" and the ICC as "biased and discriminatory", but in September 2025 a UN Commission of Inquiry concluded that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza and that top Israeli officials including Netanyahu incited these acts – accusations that Israel called scandalous.

There is still international pressure for criminal action over the Gaza conflict. On Tuesday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said "Peace cannot mean forgetting; it cannot mean impunity.

"Those who were key actors in the genocide perpetrated in Gaza must answer to justice, there can be no impunity," he said when asked about the possibility of legal proceedings against Netanyahu.

The logistics of rebuilding 

Rebuilding Gaza is a huge task. Swathes of it are in ruins: more than 80 percent of all buildings in the Strip are destroyed or damaged, per the UN Development Programme (UNDP). While some clearance has begun of what the UNDP estimates at 55 million tonnes of rubble, unexploded ordnance is hampering efforts. 

Updated World Bank estimates put reconstruction costs for Gaza at $80 billion, up from $53 billion last October. That's four times the combined GDP of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 2022, according to World Bank figures.

Clearly, the rebuilding of Gaza will require input from outside sources – inevitably raising fears of a 'landgrab' and potentially increasing distrust between the various interested parties, both local and global. 

On Tuesday, UNDP official Jaco Cilliers said that European and Arab nations, Canada and the U.S. appear willing to contribute financially toward rebuilding.  

Also on Tuesday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he will seek financial support for reconstruction "from Gulf countries, the U.S., and European nations, and that he expected it to be "swiftly provided" for rebuilding projects developed by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League.

It remains to be seen how such involvement in Gaza would be viewed by Netanyahu's government, whom Erdogan warned against further military action. 

"Israel has a poor record when it comes to violating ceasefires. This forces us to be more cautious and meticulous," he said. "If it turns into genocide again, Israel knows the consequences will be severe."

The Turkish leader also proposed sending container homes to Gaza to help with housing in the devastated strip, especially during the coming winter – and underlined that Western countries' decisions to recognise the Palestinian state should be seen as building blocks of a two-state solution. 

The eternal question of Palestinian statehood

The bitterly contested concept of a two-state solution is perhaps the most fundamental threat to this, or any other, peace process in Gaza. 

Point 19 of the 20-point peace plan allows for the possibility of a future Palestinian state.  

"That was a very important inclusion to get the support of the Arab states to do their part," said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. 

However, many in Israel – both the public and those in power – might struggle to accept Palestinian statehood after the October 7 attack, and Shapiro says that if government and opposition politicians campaign heavily against the creation of such a state, it could limit the willingness of Arab countries to push Hamas to fulfill its obligations under Trump's deal.

"If the political discourse is a full-on rejection of a Palestinian state for all time, I think that could color the enthusiasm of the Arab parties to play the parts that they need to play," he said.

Of the 193 UN member states, 157 recognize Palestinian statehood – but Israel does not, and neither does the U.S., with Trump telling the UN General Assembly last month that recognition would "reward" Hamas.

On his way back from the Egypt summit on Monday, Trump said "A lot of people like the one-state solution. Some people like the two-state solutions. We'll have to see."