Fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire tests nuclear diplomacy

At least 71 people were killed when Israeli jets struck Evin Prison in the Iranian capital last week, while hospital officials in Gaza cited by Al Jazeera report at least 27 Palestinians, including nine children, were killed in fresh Israeli strikes on Sunday.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resurfaced on June 26 to claim "victory" over Israel and the United States but warned that Iran would "strike back" if either power attacked again. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the campaign has "sent Iran's nuclear program down the drain" and created "opportunities for peace" with Arab states.

U.S. President Donald Trump declared "They don't know what the f*** they're doing" as both sides accused the other of defying his ceasefire.

Nuclear diplomacy

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told CBS News that Israeli and U.S. strikes had destroyed centrifuge halls and equipment but left Iran "capable of returning to high-level enrichment within a matter of months if it so chooses." 

On June 25 the Iranian parliament approved a bill suspending "voluntary" cooperation with the IAEA. The measure, later ratified by the Guardian Council, denies inspectors access to declared sites until "security guarantees" are provided, effectively banning the agency from the country. 

"Iran will not accept any restrictions on its missile activities" Iran's ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations Amir Saied Iravani said in comments reported on Saturday by Press TV, adding: "Iran still insists that enrichment must be carried out on its own soil. A consortium might serve as a supplement to our nuclear program, but it is by no means a substitute for it."

President Trump said he would consider bombing Iran again if his intelligence suggests the country can enrich uranium to a "concerning" level, speaking a White House press conference on Saturday.

Strait of Hormuz in the crosshairs

Tehran's parliament has signaled it may close the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a corridor for nearly a quarter of global oil flows, if the U.S. or Israel strike again. 

Fertilizer giant Yara's chief executive Svein Tore Holsether told the Financial Times that any prolonged disruption would trigger a "global food-price shock," noting that 40 percent of world urea and 20 percent of LNG pass through the waterway. 

Gaza's death toll rises

Israel's oldest newspaper Haaretz reported Friday that nearly 100,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's war on Gaza, representing about 4 percent of the territory's population. 

Europe responds 

European leaders meeting in Brussels on Wednesday demanded an "immediate cease-fire in Gaza," warned Israel over humanitarian access and reiterated that Iran "must never acquire a nuclear weapon."

German Interior minister Alexander Dobrindt on Sunday visited Tel Aviv, declaring "We must deepen our support for Israel". De Bild reports that the country plans to establish a joint cyber research center with Israel.

UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo told the Security Council last week that "the window to prevent catastrophic escalation has not yet closed, but it is closing fast."