Fewer births and an aging population: The EU's quiet population crisis deepens

On 1 January 2024, the European Union's (EU) population stood at 449 million, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous year. But behind the small uptick lies a more pressing story: Europe is aging rapidly, and fewer people are getting married or having children.

According to Eurostat's latest Demography of Europe report, five countries make up two-thirds of the EU's population:

Germany (83.4 million, 19 per cent of the EU total)

France (68.4 million, 15 per cent)

Italy (58.9 million, 13 per cent)

Spain (48.6 million, 11 per cent)

Poland (36.6 million, 8 per cent)

Collectively the top five countries made up 66 per cent of the total population of the EU.

Here are some other key highlights:

The EU is rapidly aging despite initiatives:

Worldwide countries are aging at rapid rates while birth rates continue to plummet, with the average woman bearing 1.38 children, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

Women in Europe are having children later in life, with the average age of first births rising to 29.8 years, from 28.8 in 2013. Italy recorded the highest average at 31.8, while Bulgaria had the lowest at 26.9.

Statistics from Eurostat have shown that there has been a decrease in birth rates in all EU countries except Bulgaria, when comparing figures from 2023 to 2003.

There was a decrease in all EU countries except Bulgaria.

The continuation of this demographic shift is further worrying policymakers in the EU, with additional pressure being placed on public services and pensions schemes.

But what is being done to help increase fertility levels across the EU?

Some countries have launched aggressive policies to reverse the trend.

The Hungarian government spends approximately 5 per cent of its national GDP on increasing birth rates.

In 2016 Poland launched its 500 plus program, where parents receive $137 per month for every child after their first. Data from the European Commission has shown almost four million children were covered by this policy by 2017.

Sweden is another country which also has generous family benefits, with 480 days of paid leave, or 240 per parent, with 90 days reserved exclusively for each parent. When on leave a parent can receive up to 80 percent of their salary.

But so far, these measures have had limited success in reversing the downward trend.

Marriage levels hit record lows

Marriage is also on the decline across the EU, with rates at their lowest since 1964.

A total of 1.8 million marriages took place in 2023, or four marriages for every 1,000 people. In 2007 marriage rates peaked with 5.0 marriages per 1,000 persons, but since the Covid-19 pandemic, marriage rates have declined at a rapid rate.

Marriage rates in the EU decreased to 3.2 per 1,000 people in 2020. In 2022, rates rebounded to 4.2, before slightly declining to 4.0 in 2023.

The age that people are getting married is also increasing across all the EU countries. From 2003 to 2023 the biggest age jump for a woman's first marriage was in Spain, from 28.9 to 36.9. For men it was Portugal with an almost seven-year increase from 28.1 to 35.