RAZOR: Bird flu - the next pandemic?
A strain of avian influenza has been spreading at an unprecedented rate among both farmed and wild bird species, as well as a growing number of mammal species. This particular strain of bird flu, known as H5N1, continues to behave unpredictably — and now experts are concerned it could spark a human pandemic.
So far, more than 500 wild bird species and nearly 50 mammal species have been affected, and the relentless virus has now reached nearly every corner of the globe. Dr. Lineke Begeman was part of an expedition to Antarctica, where they recorded the first outbreak of bird flu on the pristine continent — home to many iconic species.
In the UK, Professor James Wood is part of a consortium of experts studying the virus. They have found that wild birds are now the primary route of infection into poultry farms, overtaking the movement of infected poultry between farms as the main transmission pathway.
The virus has also jumped to dairy cattle in the U.S.; to date, 1,020 herds across 17 states have been affected. There have been 70 confirmed human cases, mostly resulting in mild illness, though one death has been reported.
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RAZOR's Neil Cairns also speaks with Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about the virus's recent jump to dairy cattle and the potential risk of it spilling over to humans. At present, H5N1 is not transmitted from human to human. However, research is underway to monitor its natural mutations, which may be increasing its transmissibility.
Professor Debby van Riel, at the Erasmus Medical Centre in the Netherlands, has found that recent variants of H5N1 are more adept at infecting the upper respiratory tract than previous strains. In the U.S., Professor Jim Paulson and his team at Scripps Research have produced worrying findings: H5N1 may now be only one mutation away from becoming transmissible between humans.
The good news is that we are far better prepared than we were in 1918. A vaccine targeting the H5N1 strain already exists, providing a critical line of defense. The risk to the general public remains low for now, and health organizations continue to monitor the situation closely.