Will Thursday's Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul happen?

Last Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed direct talks with Ukraine to take place this Thursday (May 15) in the Turkish city of Istanbul.

Putin said the talks should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy reacted favorably, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan agreed to host the talks and U.S. President Donald Trump even offered to attend. 

But with less than 48 hours until the suggested date, it's not clear whether the talks will actually go ahead.

What are the positions of the leading players?

Russia

On Tuesday a Kremlin statement revealed that Russia will announce who is attending the talks when President Vladimir Putin sees fit to. The Kremlin declined to say whether or not Putin will attend himself.

"The Russian side continues to prepare for the negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the talks and Zelenskyy's demand that Putin attend. "We are not going to comment any more yet."

When asked directly who would represent Russia at the talks, Peskov said: "As soon as the president sees fit, we will announce it."

Ukraine

A Ukrainian presidential advisor said that Zelenskyy will only meet Putin for talks, not other members of the Russian delegation, said on Tuesday.

Later, in his nightly video address, the Ukrainian president noted that Russian attacks had continued on the front lines throughout the day, and Moscow still had not responded to his call for Putin to meet him for talks in Türkiye later in the week.

"Russian shelling and assaults continue," Zelenskyy said. "Moscow has remained silent all day regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. A very strange silence."

On Monday Zelenskyy said he had spoken to his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan about the proposed meeting.

"We discussed key points of the meeting in Türkiye which may help end the war," Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. "I am grateful for the readiness at the highest level to facilitate diplomacy."

Zelenskyy also welcomed the possibility of Trump's participation in talks.

"All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Türkiye. This is the right idea. We can change a lot," Zelenskyy said on X. He added that Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan "can indeed host (the) highest-level meeting".

Putin and Zelenskyy have not met since December 2019 - over two years before the conflict between the two countries began.

Türkiye 

Türkiye has agreed to host peace talks in Istanbul again, President Tayyip Erdogan told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by phone on Sunday, Erdogan's office said.

Erdogan told Putin that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks, a readout of the call said.

In a separate call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Erdogan said "a historic turning point" had been reached and that the opportunity should be seized, according to Erdogan's office.

NATO member Türkiye has maintained cordial ties with both Kyiv and Moscow and also hosted talks between Russia and Ukraine in March 2022. 

The draft accords discussed then would have obliged Ukraine to give up its NATO ambitions and accept permanent neutral and nuclear-free status in return for security guarantees from the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France - the five permanent UN Security Council members.

United States

President Trump offered on Monday to join the prospective talks, telling reporters at the White House that talks in Istanbul could be helpful and he might join them while in the region. Trump's current schedule has him visiting Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar this week.

"I've got so many meetings, but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There's a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen, but we've got to get it done," he said before departing for his trip. "Don't underestimate Thursday in Türkiye," Trump said.

China

In a joint statement issued after bilateral talks in Beijing, China and Brazil welcomed Putin's proposal and said they hoped direct dialogue could begin as soon as possible. 

The two countries said they had an expectation that the parties would "reach an understanding that will enable the start of fruitful negotiations that address the legitimate concerns of all parties."

Their statement added that it was "necessary to find a political solution to the Ukraine crisis in its roots with a view to a fair and durable peace deal that is binding on all the parties concerned at the end."

Europe

On Monday, the German government said Europe would start preparing new sanctions against Russia unless the Kremlin by the end of the day started abiding by a 30-day ceasefire in its conflict with Ukraine.

"The clock is ticking," a German government spokesperson said at a news conference in Berlin.

The leaders of four major European powers travelled to Kyiv on Saturday and demanded an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Monday. Putin, implicitly rejecting the offer, instead proposed direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul that he said could potentially lead to a ceasefire.

Responding to the ceasefire proposal, Russia said at the weekend it is committed to ending the conflict but that European powers were using the language of confrontation.