Independence gradualists win Greenland election overshadowed by Trump

Greenland's opposition Demokraatit party, which is pro-business and favors a slow approach to independence from Denmark, won Tuesday's parliamentary election that was dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to take control of the island.

Demokraatit secured 29.9 percent of the votes with all ballots counted – up from 9.1 percent in 2021, and more importantly ahead of the Naleraq party, which favors rapid independence, at 24.5 percent.

Since taking office in January, Trump has vowed to make Greenland - a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark - part of the United States, saying it is vital to U.S. security interests, an idea rejected by most Greenlanders.

The vast island, with a population of just 57,000, has been caught up in a geopolitical race for dominance in the Arctic, where melting ice caps are making its resources more accessible and opening new shipping routes. Various nations have intensified military activity in the region.

"People want change... We want more business to finance our welfare," said Jens-Frederik Nielsen, Demokraatit's leader and a former minister of industry and minerals. "We don't want independence tomorrow, we want a good foundation." 

Nielsen will now hold talks with other parties to try and form a governing coalition.

The incumbent Inuit Ataqatigiit party and its partner Siumut, which also seeks a slow path towards independence, won a combined 36 percent of votes, down from 66.1 percent in 2021.

Voting had been extended by half an hour at some of the 72 polling stations across the Arctic island, where some 40,500 people were eligible to cast their ballot, although the final turnout was not immediately available.

"We respect the election outcome," Prime Minister Mute Egede of the Inuit Ataqatigiit said in a Facebook post, adding that he would listen to any proposals in upcoming coalition talks.

From colony through autonomy… to independence?

Greenland is a former Danish colony and has been a territory since 1953. It gained some autonomy in 1979 when its first parliament was formed, but Copenhagen still controls foreign affairs, defense and monetary policy and provides just under $1 billion a year to the economy.

In 2009, Greenland won the right to declare full independence through a referendum, even though it has not done so out of concern living standards would drop without Denmark's economic support.

"I strongly believe that we will very soon start to live a life more based on who we are, based on our culture, based on our own language, and start to make regulations based on us, not based on Denmark," said Qupanuk Olsen, candidate for the main pro-independence party Naleraq.

A January poll suggested a majority of Greenland's inhabitants support independence, but are divided on timing. While almost all Greenlandic politicians agree there should be an independence referendum, the burning question is when. 

While Naleraq wants to accelerate the process, both the incumbent Inuit Ataqatigiit and the election-winning Demokraatit parties prefer a slower pace.

"We don't need independence right now. We have too many things to work on," said Inuit Ataqatigiit candidate Inge Olsvig Brandt. "I think we have to work with ourselves, our history, and we are going to have a lot of healing work with us before we can take the next step."

Inuit pride

Trump's vocal interest has shaken up the status quo; coupled with the growing pride of the indigenous people in their Inuit culture, it has put independence front and center in the election.

In the final debate on Greenland's state broadcaster KNR late on Monday, leaders of the five parties currently in parliament unanimously said they did not trust Trump.

"He is trying to influence us. I can understand if citizens feel insecure," said Erik Jensen, leader of incumbent coalition partner Siumut.

Early on, the election campaign focused on the anger and frustration aimed at historical wrongdoings by Denmark, according to Julie Rademacher, a consultant and former adviser to Greenland's government.

"But I think the fear of the U.S. imperialist approach has lately become bigger than the anger towards Denmark," said Rademacher.

Even some Greenlanders who favor independence express concern that a swift transition could damage the economy and eliminate Nordic welfare services like universal healthcare and free schooling.

"We don't want to be part of the U.S. for obvious reasons; healthcare and Trump," said Tuuta Lynge-Larsen, a bank employee and Nuuk resident, adding that this election was especially important. "We don't like the attention, to put it short."

The island holds substantial natural resources, including critical minerals such as rare earths used in high-tech industries, ranging from electric vehicles to missile systems.

However, Greenland has been slow to extract them due to severe weather and environmental concerns, as well as set-up costs in a fiercely competitive sector.

Investment pledges

Trump initially declined to rule out military force to take control of the territory, alarming many Greenlanders, although he later softened his stance, stating he would respect the will of the local people and was "ready to invest billions of dollars" if they joined the United States.

Prime Minister Egede has stressed the island is not for sale and advocated for a broad coalition government to resist external pressure. In an interview aired on Monday by Danish broadcaster DR, he dismissed Trump's offer as disrespectful, expressing willingness to cooperate with other countries instead.

Denmark's prime minister Mette Frederiksen has said Greenland is not for sale, but made it clear that it is up to the local people to decide their future.

All six main political parties support independence but differ on how and when it could be achieved. The pro-independence Naleraq party, the leading opposition force, had gained momentum ahead of the election, bolstered by U.S. interest and fresh accusations of Denmark's historic exploitation of Greenland's mineral wealth.

The party believes the U.S. attention strengthens Greenland's position in secession talks with Denmark and aims to bring a deal with Copenhagen to a vote before the next election in four years. It remains to be seen if Naleraq can convince the incoming coalition to maintain that pace.