China Explained: Is Self-Driving the future?

Self-driving vehicles have been depicted in sci-fi novels and movies for decades as the future. Now that future seems to be closer than ever in our daily life.

In the summer, robotaxis in China's Wuhan City suddenly became a trendy topic as orders of Baidu's robotaxi "Apollo Go" surges. According to the financial report of its parental company Baidu, Apollo Go robotaxis have received over seven million orders as of Q2 of 2024. Taxi drivers in Wuhan City even started to worry about their jobs being stolen.

In October, Tesla released its robotaxi models, vowing to launch the new models in June 2025. Without a steering wheel or pedals, it is leaping forward even more boldly.

How far away is the self-driving future? How would that re-shape the world we are familiar with?

What is "Self-driving" vehicle?

According to SAE, there are six levels in driving automation, starting from Level 0 to Level 5. With Level 3 automated systems or above, drivers could be spared under certain circumstances. Most of the self-driving vehicles right now running on the road are either of Level 3 or 4. Level 5 vehicles are considered fully autonomous which no longer requires human drivers’ operation.

Self-driving cars senses the road environment through multiple sensors including laser-based LiDar, cameras, millimeter wave radar. The computer system of the car then makes the decision and sends orders to the car for its following actions.

Despite many car manufacturers are researching on self-driving technologies for the future cars, so far most self-driving cars running down the cities across the world are still robotaxis. 

How is China's "self-driving" market growing?

In the summer of 2024, robotaxis have brought the abstract concept idea of "self-driving" into the public discussions in China's Wuhan City. But in fact, the self-driving section have already been developing for years.

A number of China's robotaxi companies have already been providing commercial rides in Chinese cities.

Apollo Go have provided services in more than 10 Chinese cities, and has around 2,000 vehicles across the country. It is expected to have a fleet of over 20,000 robotaxis covering 65 cities between 2024 and 2026. Baidu also launched its sixth-generation robotaxis with Level 4 autonomous driving systems in 2024, cutting the cost for each car by 57 percent.

Before then end of 2024, Pony.ai, a Guangzhou-based robotaxi company, announced that it will expand the fleet from 250 to at least 1,000 across China in 2025. The company has made debuts on Nasdaq before the end of 2024, raising 260 million dollars.

Another Guangzhou-based robotaxi company WeRide is reported to have raised 440.5 million dollars in an initial public offering and concurrent private placement on the Nasdaq market in October. WeRide is now looking to expand its business in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Japan and South Korea at the same time.

Of course, there are occasionally setbacks. For instance, videos of Apollo Go robotaxis being stuck in the middle of the roads are always stirring new debates. However, data shows that an increasing number of people have become more acceptant towards the new transportation mode.

Baidu's Q3 financial report shows that in the third quarter of 2024, Apollo Go's orders increased by 20 percent to 988,000, refreshing its own record again. A research by McKinsay shows that at least 60 percent of the surveyed Chinese are willing to buy a driverless car, higher than those in the U.S. and Europe.

Where does the trust come from?

But China's self-driving sector does not take off out of nowhere. The country has started to the layout since decade ago.

In 2015. China put forward the concept of building an intelligent connected system for vehicles while designated Shanghai as the pilot zone. In 2019, the idea of Vehicle-Road-Cloud integrated system was pub forward for the first time.

With the integrated system, China is eyeing not only the self-driving cars but the construction of the smart roads and even the smart city in the far future.

In 2024, five ministries in China have jointly issued a notice, identifying 20 cities and areas as pilot areas for the deployment of the Vehicle-Road-Cloud integrated system.

According to the Chinese Ministry of the Public Security, China has released over 16,000 licences for self-driving test vehicles while the roads opened for tests totalled 32,000 kilometers. The entire circumference of the earth is around 40,000 kilometers.

Meanwhile, the sector is expected to bring new opportunities for China's development.

In order to construct the network system, the infrastructure is expected to be updated. Road side units need to be deployed, and supportive facilities such as satellite navigation systems, cloud computing, high-definition maps and 5G network are necessary.

The scale of the market is expected to grow dramatically during the next few decades.

According to a report by China-SAE, the increment of the industrial value is expected to reach 370 billion dollars in 2030. 

How wild can the future be?

Yet, that is not the wildest thing China has been doing. Self-driving taxis and buses have already become part of China's public transportation, and the self-driving technology has now been widely applied in agriculture, mine excavating, first-aid relief, logistics and delivery. But there are still more potential to be explored, such as the transportation in the air.

In April 2024, China Aviation Administration issued production certification to Ehang, a domestic manufacturer of eVTOL aircrafts. It is the first such certificate in the industry around the globe, which allows mass production of the aircraft.

A Shanghai-based eVTOL company, Autoflight has completed pilot flight of unmanned aircraft from Shenzhen to Zhuhai, shortening the travel time from three hours to 20 minutes.

Currently, several eVTOL companies have now secured licenses for mass production of the self-driving aircrafts, and in the near future, they are expected to fly up in the sky, delivering everything, from pineapple to people.

The industrial volume of eVTOL in 2023 has already exceeded 130 million dollars, and research shows that the scale of the "low-altitude economy" is expected to reach 140 billion dollars by 2026. 

How will the future roads look like? It remains unknown. But China clearly has done a blueprint, and has set out on its journey. The future won't be far away, as long as one set out early.

Supervisor: Mei Yan

Chief Editor: Qian Fang, Duncan Hooper

Executive Producer: Gleb Burashov

Producer: Ai Yan

Presenter: Michael Marillier

Cameraman: Tom Triebel

Video Editing: Tom Triebel

Motion Graphics: Angela Martin, Alexander Shields